MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Soybeans(CBOT) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	25	22	23	26	25	22	21	20	18	22
Exceeded High		16	17	17	20	21	19	15	17	15	10	14
Scenario Percentage		80%	68%	77%	87%	81%	76%	68%	81%	75%	56%	64%
Avg Max Increase		7.53%	5.47%	7.42%	7.48%	7.66%	9.26%	15.69%	14.73%	13.56%	11.50%	5.53%
Max Increase		17.59%	27.24%	24.01%	23.73%	19.59%	23.39%	51.72%	32.47%	53.39%	35.50%	12.43%
Avg Days To Max Increase		22	14	18	17	17	18	21	14	14	13	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.98%	-1.35%	-1.96%	-1.33%	-1.48%	-2.00%	-2.22%	-1.69%	-0.80%	-4.05%	-1.09%
Max Decline		-5.12%	-3.80%	-9.46%	-6.46%	-5.78%	-5.66%	-10.71%	-4.75%	-5.98%	-8.05%	-3.34%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	5	10	6	10	14	9	6	5	8	2
2020 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes						Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes						Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		22	20	23	22	19	19	23	23	25	27	22
Penetrated Low		16	12	16	16	14	16	17	22	24	25	11
Scenario Percentage		73%	60%	70%	73%	74%	84%	74%	96%	96%	93%	50%
Avg Max Decline		5.74%	5.37%	5.02%	4.92%	6.12%	5.17%	8.70%	8.54%	10.06%	5.54%	2.97%
Max Decline		16.96%	11.56%	15.03%	17.51%	12.14%	11.63%	18.50%	20.52%	29.71%	16.53%	5.99%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	14	15	14	13	18	16	18	13	9	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.95%	-2.15%	-1.09%	-2.00%	-1.73%	-2.29%	-2.50%	-3.33%	-3.43%	-2.57%	-1.31%
Max Increase		-4.70%	-6.53%	-3.35%	-6.32%	-3.69%	-7.78%	-8.75%	-11.49%	-12.68%	-12.88%	-3.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	9	7	8	6	9	9	9	8	7	3
2020 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No
High	952.00	981.75	975.00	978.75	982.50	923.25	920.00	881.75	861.25	882.25	905.00	967.00
Low	909.75	948.50	922.25	917.00	906.50	895.25	833.50	825.00	833.75	839.25	868.00	863.25
Close/Last	950.00	968.50	922.25	978.50	906.50	904.25	881.00	854.75	845.50	877.00	890.25	951.25