MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		19	25	21	23	26	26	22	21	20	19	21
Exceeded High		16	17	16	20	21	19	15	17	16	11	12
Scenario Percentage		84%	68%	76%	87%	81%	73%	68%	81%	80%	58%	57%
Avg Max Increase		7.53%	5.89%	7.86%	7.75%	7.66%	9.26%	15.69%	18.21%	17.54%	9.96%	5.06%
Max Increase		17.59%	27.24%	24.01%	23.73%	19.59%	23.39%	51.72%	63.92%	57.58%	34.02%	12.43%
Avg Days To Max Increase		22	15	19	18	17	18	21	14	13	14	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.98%	-1.54%	-2.07%	-1.46%	-1.48%	-2.00%	-2.22%	-1.73%	-0.65%	-3.65%	-0.68%
Max Decline		-5.12%	-3.80%	-9.46%	-6.46%	-5.78%	-5.66%	-10.71%	-4.75%	-5.98%	-8.05%	-3.28%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	7	10	6	10	14	9	6	2	7	2
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes				Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	20	24	22	19	18	23	23	25	26	23
Penetrated Low		18	12	18	16	14	15	17	23	24	23	13
Scenario Percentage		78%	60%	75%	73%	74%	83%	74%	100%	96%	88%	57%
Avg Max Decline		6.22%	7.36%	6.00%	5.56%	6.52%	5.22%	8.82%	8.29%	10.06%	5.78%	3.24%
Max Decline		16.96%	25.58%	26.57%	18.36%	18.22%	13.61%	18.50%	20.52%	29.71%	16.53%	5.99%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	14	15	13	10	18	16	18	13	8	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.08%	-1.66%	-1.17%	-2.00%	-1.90%	-2.30%	-2.50%	-3.18%	-3.43%	-1.96%	-1.26%
Max Increase		-6.25%	-4.25%	-3.35%	-6.32%	-3.74%	-7.78%	-8.75%	-11.49%	-12.68%	-8.14%	-3.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	7	7	7	6	10	10	9	8	6	3
2018 Contract Condition				Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
High	1009.25	1024.00	1025.00	1033.00	1019.00	1048.75	1063.25	1065.00	1056.00	1035.00	912.00	904.50
Low	970.25	981.75	989.25	974.50	967.25	988.50	1015.00	996.75	998.50	853.50	816.50	816.00
Close/Last	994.25	1004.00	1008.50	980.25	1012.25	1045.50	1051.25	1047.25	1027.25	869.25	908.75	833.00