MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		19	24	23	22	26	26	23	22	21	19	22
Exceeded High		16	16	18	19	22	19	15	18	18	11	13
Scenario Percentage		84%	67%	78%	86%	85%	73%	65%	82%	86%	58%	59%
Avg Max Increase		7.36%	6.95%	8.85%	9.00%	8.52%	8.80%	19.39%	18.54%	16.76%	10.09%	5.36%
Max Increase		17.59%	27.24%	31.20%	24.92%	19.61%	23.39%	72.72%	63.92%	57.58%	35.50%	12.43%
Avg Days To Max Increase		22	18	20	17	18	19	22	16	14	13	8
Avg Max Decline		-2.00%	-1.66%	-2.12%	-1.38%	-1.60%	-1.88%	-2.10%	-3.14%	-2.51%	-3.65%	-1.12%
Max Decline		-5.12%	-3.61%	-9.46%	-6.46%	-8.16%	-5.66%	-10.71%	-27.40%	-30.23%	-8.05%	-3.34%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	8	10	5	9	15	9	8	4	7	2
2015 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes				Yes
Action		Yes		No		No				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	21	22	23	19	18	22	22	24	26	22
Penetrated Low		17	13	15	16	14	14	15	22	23	23	13
Scenario Percentage		74%	62%	68%	70%	74%	78%	68%	100%	96%	88%	59%
Avg Max Decline		6.36%	7.01%	6.95%	5.56%	6.65%	5.27%	8.41%	7.77%	10.23%	5.59%	4.23%
Max Decline		16.96%	25.58%	26.57%	18.36%	18.22%	13.61%	16.47%	19.61%	29.71%	16.53%	14.58%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	14	16	13	11	17	15	18	13	8	9
Avg Max Increase		-2.18%	-1.73%	-1.24%	-2.00%	-2.00%	-2.26%	-2.57%	-3.30%	-3.37%	-2.62%	-1.29%
Max Increase		-6.25%	-4.25%	-3.35%	-6.32%	-3.74%	-7.78%	-8.75%	-11.49%	-12.68%	-12.88%	-4.37%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	8	7	7	7	7	9	10	7	6	3
2015 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
High	1047.25	1045.25	1072.75	1054.50	1044.75	1017.25	1016.75	984.50	969.00	1042.75	1045.75	1009.50
Low	935.50	936.25	996.50	985.00	952.50	955.50	945.00	940.50	900.00	898.50	937.50	874.00
Close/Last	939.50	1042.50	1011.50	1018.00	956.75	1012.00	964.25	958.75	907.75	1041.50	953.25	897.50