MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		39	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		18	24	24	24	25	26	24	21	22	20	22
Exceeded High		15	15	20	20	22	19	16	17	19	12	11
Scenario Percentage		83%	63%	83%	83%	88%	73%	67%	81%	86%	60%	50%
Avg Max Increase		7.65%	7.31%	8.18%	8.56%	8.42%	8.64%	18.88%	19.50%	16.10%	9.21%	5.24%
Max Increase		17.59%	27.24%	31.20%	24.92%	19.61%	23.39%	72.72%	63.92%	57.58%	34.02%	12.43%
Avg Days To Max Increase		23	17	20	17	18	19	21	16	14	13	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.83%	-1.72%	-1.96%	-1.34%	-1.58%	-1.85%	-1.87%	-3.30%	-2.21%	-3.37%	-0.74%
Max Decline		-5.12%	-3.61%	-9.46%	-6.46%	-8.16%	-5.66%	-10.71%	-27.40%	-30.23%	-8.05%	-3.28%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	8	10	6	9	15	8	8	4	7	2
2012 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		39	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	21	21	21	20	18	21	23	23	25	22
Penetrated Low		15	14	14	15	15	13	15	22	22	21	12
Scenario Percentage		71%	67%	67%	71%	75%	72%	71%	96%	96%	84%	55%
Avg Max Decline		6.66%	6.14%	6.97%	5.85%	6.14%	4.95%	8.20%	7.16%	9.88%	5.35%	3.88%
Max Decline		16.96%	25.58%	26.57%	18.36%	18.22%	13.61%	16.47%	19.61%	29.71%	16.53%	12.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	11	14	12	11	16	17	20	12	8	7
Avg Max Increase		-2.23%	-1.32%	-1.22%	-1.71%	-1.82%	-2.21%	-2.51%	-3.32%	-3.36%	-1.53%	-1.04%
Max Increase		-6.25%	-4.07%	-3.35%	-6.24%	-3.74%	-7.78%	-8.75%	-11.49%	-12.68%	-5.21%	-3.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	5	8	6	7	8	8	11	7	5	3
2012 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes				Yes
Action			Yes		No				Yes
High	1420.00	1265.75	1243.25	1218.25	1242.50	1305.00	1388.75	1425.50	1434.50	1455.00	1730.00	1780.75
Low	1200.50	1182.00	1124.25	1124.00	1172.00	1207.50	1293.50	1363.75	1287.50	1272.00	1450.25	1570.25
Close/Last	1200.50	1233.50	1151.25	1212.75	1207.50	1300.50	1376.00	1424.50	1293.75	1450.25	1656.75	1764.50