MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	36	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	15	25	23	25	25	25	23	23	23	18	22
Exceeded High	13	16	19	20	21	19	16	19	20	9	11
Scenario Percentage	87%	64%	83%	80%	84%	76%	70%	83%	87%	50%	50%
Avg Max Increase	7.03%	7.60%	8.25%	8.51%	8.18%	8.83%	19.67%	18.57%	14.77%	10.17%	5.70%
Max Increase	17.59%	27.24%	31.20%	24.92%	19.61%	23.39%	72.72%	63.92%	57.58%	35.50%	12.43%
Avg Days To Max Increase	24	19	19	17	17	21	21	16	14	12	8
Avg Max Decline	-1.67%	-1.75%	-1.74%	-1.35%	-1.46%	-1.76%	-1.38%	-3.00%	-2.53%	-2.95%	-1.02%
Max Decline	-5.12%	-3.61%	-9.46%	-6.46%	-8.16%	-5.66%	-5.04%	-27.40%	-30.23%	-6.99%	-3.34%
Avg Days to Max Decline	6	9	9	6	8	14	7	7	5	6	2
2009 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	36	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	21	20	22	20	20	18	22	21	22	27	22
Penetrated Low	15	14	14	15	14	13	16	19	22	23	13
Scenario Percentage	71%	70%	64%	75%	70%	72%	73%	90%	100%	85%	59%
Avg Max Decline	6.66%	6.19%	6.25%	5.84%	6.13%	5.28%	7.71%	7.76%	9.80%	5.01%	15.97%
Max Decline	16.96%	25.58%	26.57%	18.36%	18.22%	13.61%	16.47%	19.61%	29.71%	16.53%	59.51%
Avg Days To Max Decline	16	11	15	13	11	16	17	21	12	8	10
Avg Max Increase	-2.23%	-1.29%	-1.10%	-1.62%	-1.68%	-1.68%	-2.53%	-3.60%	-2.97%	-2.19%	-2.49%
Max Increase	-6.25%	-4.07%	-3.35%	-6.24%	-3.74%	-4.26%	-8.75%	-11.49%	-12.68%	-12.88%	-11.86%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	6	8	6	7	7	8	12	7	6	5
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes
Action	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes
High	1107.00	1008.75	1006.75	1042.00	990.25	928.00	989.75	1101.50	1135.50	1081.00	1164.75
Low	876.75	859.25	803.00	952.00	831.50	798.50	901.75	980.50	999.00	912.75	976.75
Close/Last	967.00	908.00	1006.75	968.00	840.00	906.50	980.50	1096.50	1030.00	1044.00	1100.00