MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	34	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	14	25	23	25	25	24	22	22	24	17	22
Exceeded High	12	16	18	19	20	18	15	18	21	8	11
Scenario Percentage	86%	64%	78%	76%	80%	75%	68%	82%	88%	47%	50%
Avg Max Increase	6.15%	6.43%	7.55%	7.88%	8.40%	8.12%	18.62%	18.82%	14.42%	9.81%	5.52%
Max Increase	14.44%	14.41%	31.20%	24.92%	19.61%	23.39%	72.72%	63.92%	57.58%	34.02%	12.43%
Avg Days To Max Increase	23	20	20	18	17	20	22	16	14	11	8
Avg Max Decline	-1.54%	-1.77%	-1.79%	-1.46%	-1.47%	-1.83%	-1.15%	-3.08%	-2.50%	-2.52%	-0.81%
Max Decline	-5.12%	-3.61%	-9.46%	-6.46%	-8.16%	-5.66%	-3.01%	-27.40%	-30.23%	-6.99%	-3.28%
Avg Days to Max Decline	7	9	10	7	8	15	7	8	5	5	2
2007 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	34	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	20	20	22	20	20	19	23	22	21	28	22
Penetrated Low	14	13	14	15	14	13	17	20	21	22	12
Scenario Percentage	70%	65%	64%	75%	70%	68%	74%	91%	100%	79%	55%
Avg Max Decline	5.92%	5.77%	6.25%	5.03%	6.20%	5.07%	7.33%	7.46%	9.72%	4.49%	12.59%
Max Decline	15.50%	25.58%	26.57%	18.36%	18.22%	13.61%	16.47%	19.61%	29.71%	11.47%	59.51%
Avg Days To Max Decline	16	11	15	14	13	17	17	21	12	8	9
Avg Max Increase	-2.08%	-1.38%	-1.10%	-1.51%	-1.79%	-1.43%	-2.46%	-3.52%	-2.88%	-1.56%	-1.28%
Max Increase	-6.25%	-4.07%	-3.35%	-6.24%	-3.74%	-3.97%	-8.75%	-11.49%	-12.68%	-5.21%	-3.80%
Avg Days to Max Increase	7	6	8	6	7	7	8	13	7	5	4
2007 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes			Yes
Action						Yes	No			Yes
High	680.00	722.00	732.00	767.50	830.75	808.00	814.00	830.25	878.00	932.00	880.50
Low	597.00	685.00	694.00	698.00	761.00	765.00	738.00	749.00	808.00	817.50	789.00
Close/Last	676.00	720.00	732.00	758.00	811.00	790.50	756.00	820.00	865.50	841.25	868.00