MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Nikkei 225 Index as of Sep 29, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		32	28	23	26	29	23	26	22	23	21	23
Exceeded High		29	23	17	23	25	18	22	17	18	20	16
Scenario Percentage		91%	82%	74%	88%	86%	78%	85%	77%	78%	95%	70%
Avg Max Increase		6.31%	7.49%	8.11%	7.32%	5.80%	5.16%	4.26%	5.97%	4.97%	6.28%	5.70%
Max Increase		17.85%	16.49%	20.98%	28.59%	15.21%	19.53%	14.68%	16.70%	11.04%	15.19%	12.94%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	24	18	19	17	18	19	19	14	18	21
Avg Max Decline		-0.99%	-2.54%	-0.75%	-1.48%	-1.24%	-1.42%	-2.10%	-2.32%	-1.99%	-2.21%	-1.17%
Max Decline		-7.33%	-7.57%	-4.84%	-7.68%	-5.34%	-6.74%	-9.12%	-6.56%	-4.74%	-10.17%	-7.54%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	14	8	7	8	7	11	8	11	12	4
2023 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		13	17	22	19	16	22	19	23	22	24	22
Penetrated Low		10	12	15	12	10	16	13	16	16	19	9
Scenario Percentage		77%	71%	68%	63%	63%	73%	68%	70%	73%	79%	41%
Avg Max Decline		8.97%	12.72%	9.13%	5.96%	10.60%	6.43%	9.34%	9.68%	10.23%	9.75%	7.52%
Max Decline		21.90%	29.51%	22.63%	14.34%	16.92%	15.74%	26.28%	33.40%	46.49%	37.88%	20.46%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	15	13	15	20	13	20	18	14	17	16
Avg Max Increase		-0.85%	-2.38%	-0.74%	-1.64%	-2.95%	-2.23%	-2.54%	-1.83%	-1.68%	-2.58%	-1.66%
Max Increase		-4.14%	-5.77%	-3.18%	-5.46%	-9.27%	-8.14%	-8.29%	-5.84%	-8.41%	-9.98%	-7.30%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	7	5	6	13	10	12	8	6	10	3
2023 Contract Condition		Yes							Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes							Yes	Not Yet	Not Yet
High	28502	28423	27502	27821	28735	28879	31560	33773	33763	33489	33634
Low	27032	25954	25662	27046	26633	27428	28932	30853	31792	31275	31674
Close/Last	27969	26095	27327	27446	28041	28856	30888	33189	33172	32619	31858