MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Nikkei 225 Index as of Oct 31, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		28	24	25	30	22	27	21	23	22	22	29
Exceeded High		23	18	23	25	17	23	16	19	20	17	23
Scenario Percentage		82%	75%	92%	83%	77%	85%	76%	83%	91%	77%	79%
Avg Max Increase		7.49%	7.78%	7.32%	5.80%	5.23%	4.29%	6.03%	4.76%	6.38%	7.97%	3.89%
Max Increase		16.49%	20.98%	28.59%	15.21%	19.53%	14.68%	16.70%	11.04%	15.74%	20.86%	10.58%
Avg Days To Max Increase		24	18	19	17	19	19	19	14	20	17	17
Avg Max Decline		-2.54%	-0.90%	-1.48%	-1.24%	-1.50%	-2.13%	-2.40%	-1.98%	-2.21%	-1.43%	-0.49%
Max Decline		-7.57%	-4.84%	-7.68%	-5.34%	-6.74%	-9.12%	-6.56%	-4.74%	-10.17%	-7.54%	-3.51%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	10	7	8	8	12	8	10	12	7	3
2022 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				No		Yes		Yes	No		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		17	21	20	15	23	18	24	22	23	23	16
Penetrated Low		11	14	13	9	17	13	16	16	18	11	4
Scenario Percentage		65%	67%	65%	60%	74%	72%	67%	73%	78%	48%	25%
Avg Max Decline		13.10%	9.29%	5.72%	11.23%	6.22%	9.34%	9.68%	10.23%	10.22%	9.90%	3.20%
Max Decline		29.51%	22.63%	14.34%	16.92%	15.74%	26.28%	33.40%	46.49%	37.88%	20.46%	6.89%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	14	14	20	14	20	18	14	17	21	10
Avg Max Increase		-2.30%	-0.66%	-1.51%	-2.64%	-2.21%	-2.54%	-1.83%	-1.68%	-2.66%	-2.35%	-1.08%
Max Increase		-5.77%	-3.18%	-5.46%	-9.27%	-8.14%	-8.29%	-5.84%	-8.41%	-9.98%	-7.30%	-2.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	5	6	10	11	12	8	6	10	10	2
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes		No			Yes
High	29121	29388	27881	28339	27966	27463	28390	28016	29223	28660	27603
Low	27589	26045	25776	24682	26051	25688	25520	25842	27531	25806	25622
Close/Last	28792	27002	26527	27821	26848	27280	26393	27802	28092	25937	27587