MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Nikkei 225 Index as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		28	23	24	31	22	28	21	23	22	22	29
Exceeded High		23	18	23	26	18	24	16	19	21	17	23
Scenario Percentage		82%	78%	96%	84%	82%	86%	76%	83%	95%	77%	79%
Avg Max Increase		7.03%	7.78%	7.32%	5.73%	5.18%	4.13%	6.03%	4.36%	6.08%	7.97%	3.89%
Max Increase		16.49%	20.98%	28.59%	15.21%	19.53%	14.68%	16.70%	11.04%	15.74%	20.86%	10.58%
Avg Days To Max Increase		25	18	19	18	18	19	19	13	19	17	17
Avg Max Decline		-2.71%	-0.90%	-1.48%	-1.27%	-1.39%	-2.03%	-2.40%	-2.07%	-2.12%	-1.43%	-0.49%
Max Decline		-7.57%	-4.84%	-7.68%	-5.34%	-6.74%	-9.12%	-6.56%	-4.74%	-10.17%	-7.54%	-3.51%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	10	7	9	7	12	8	10	11	7	3
2020 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		17	22	21	14	23	17	24	22	23	23	16
Penetrated Low		11	15	14	8	17	12	16	16	18	12	3
Scenario Percentage		65%	68%	67%	57%	74%	71%	67%	73%	78%	52%	19%
Avg Max Decline		13.10%	8.99%	5.60%	12.01%	6.22%	9.59%	9.61%	10.23%	10.22%	9.42%	3.99%
Max Decline		29.51%	22.63%	14.34%	16.92%	15.74%	26.28%	33.40%	46.49%	37.88%	20.46%	6.89%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	14	14	21	14	20	16	14	17	21	13
Avg Max Increase		-2.30%	-0.68%	-1.38%	-2.59%	-2.21%	-2.74%	-1.60%	-1.68%	-2.66%	-2.15%	-1.10%
Max Increase		-5.77%	-3.18%	-5.46%	-9.27%	-8.14%	-8.29%	-5.84%	-8.41%	-9.98%	-7.30%	-2.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	6	5	10	11	12	7	6	10	10	2
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No				No			Not Yet
High	24091	24116	23995	21720	20366	21955	23186	22966	23431	23623	23726	26834
Low	23045	22893	20916	16358	17647	19449	21530	21710	21920	22879	22948	23097
Close/Last	23657	23205	21143	18917	20194	21878	22288	21710	23140	23185	22977	26434