MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Nikkei 225 Index as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		30	25	28	29	21	29	21	23	20	22	25
Exceeded High		26	19	26	25	18	26	15	19	19	15	20
Scenario Percentage		87%	76%	93%	86%	86%	90%	71%	83%	95%	68%	80%
Avg Max Increase		6.95%	7.34%	6.37%	5.02%	5.23%	4.57%	6.86%	5.45%	5.05%	8.25%	4.49%
Max Increase		16.49%	18.00%	17.42%	15.21%	19.53%	14.68%	16.70%	12.62%	12.91%	20.86%	11.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase		25	17	18	17	17	17	19	14	20	19	18
Avg Max Decline		-2.13%	-0.83%	-0.96%	-1.18%	-1.62%	-1.81%	-1.51%	-1.47%	-1.77%	-1.06%	-0.48%
Max Decline		-7.57%	-4.84%	-5.33%	-5.34%	-7.34%	-9.12%	-3.54%	-4.74%	-8.28%	-4.77%	-3.10%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	10	7	10	9	10	8	8	12	8	3
2012 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		15	20	17	14	24	16	24	22	25	23	20
Penetrated Low		9	14	11	8	16	13	17	17	20	12	6
Scenario Percentage		60%	70%	65%	57%	67%	81%	71%	77%	80%	52%	30%
Avg Max Decline		11.21%	8.08%	5.96%	11.75%	5.93%	9.38%	10.12%	10.84%	10.39%	8.70%	5.26%
Max Decline		22.48%	22.34%	14.34%	16.92%	15.74%	26.28%	33.40%	46.49%	37.88%	20.46%	14.71%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	13	13	21	15	19	17	15	18	20	13
Avg Max Increase		-2.61%	-0.54%	-0.97%	-2.72%	-2.37%	-2.47%	-1.11%	-1.37%	-2.26%	-1.84%	-0.40%
Max Increase		-5.77%	-2.21%	-3.47%	-9.27%	-8.14%	-8.29%	-4.60%	-8.41%	-9.98%	-7.30%	-2.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	8	4	7	13	9	7	5	11	7	2
2012 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes		Yes
Action					Yes	Yes		No
High	8730	8912	9866	10255	10190	9472	9044	9136	9223	9289	9076	9493
Low	8272	8349	8780	9509	9388	8455	8239	8328	8513	8646	8488	8619
Close/Last	8455	8803	9723	10084	9521	8543	9007	8695	8840	8870	8928	9446