MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Nikkei 225 Index as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	30	25	27	29	22	27	21	23	19	22	24
Exceeded High	26	20	26	24	18	24	16	19	17	15	19
Scenario Percentage	87%	80%	96%	83%	82%	89%	76%	83%	89%	68%	79%
Avg Max Increase	6.48%	7.01%	6.27%	5.16%	5.23%	4.69%	7.46%	5.27%	4.73%	8.01%	4.10%
Max Increase	14.47%	18.00%	17.42%	15.21%	19.53%	14.68%	16.70%	12.62%	12.91%	20.86%	11.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase	25	15	18	18	17	17	19	14	19	19	18
Avg Max Decline	-2.24%	-0.62%	-0.96%	-1.26%	-1.62%	-1.67%	-1.33%	-1.44%	-1.57%	-0.77%	-0.68%
Max Decline	-7.57%	-4.84%	-5.33%	-5.34%	-7.34%	-9.12%	-3.54%	-4.74%	-8.28%	-4.77%	-4.22%
Avg Days to Max Decline	13	10	7	11	9	9	8	8	11	8	3
2009 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	14	20	18	14	23	18	24	22	26	23	21
Penetrated Low	8	15	13	6	15	15	18	17	21	12	16
Scenario Percentage	57%	75%	72%	43%	65%	83%	75%	77%	81%	52%	76%
Avg Max Decline	12.21%	8.05%	5.59%	10.84%	6.18%	9.01%	10.15%	10.77%	9.92%	9.08%	17.95%
Max Decline	22.48%	22.34%	14.34%	16.92%	15.74%	26.28%	33.40%	46.49%	37.88%	20.46%	47.39%
Avg Days To Max Decline	16	13	14	23	17	18	18	16	18	20	10
Avg Max Increase	-2.64%	-0.50%	-1.07%	-4.03%	-2.57%	-2.04%	-1.00%	-1.37%	-2.07%	-1.81%	-2.72%
Max Increase	-5.77%	-2.21%	-4.41%	-9.27%	-8.14%	-8.29%	-4.60%	-8.41%	-9.98%	-7.30%	-10.74%
Avg Days to Max Increase	11	7	4	9	13	7	7	5	11	7	-35
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes							Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes							Yes	Yes	Yes
High	9325	8258	8843	9069	9523	10171	10359	10767	10577	10398	9979
Low	7671	7155	7021	8085	8827	9491	9050	10142	9971	9629	9076
Close/Last	7994	7568	8110	8828	9523	9958	10357	10493	10133	10035	9346