MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for Nikkei 225 Index as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		43	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44
Closed Higher		30	25	26	28	21	26	20	22	19	22	24
Exceeded High		26	20	25	23	17	23	15	19	17	15	19
Scenario Percentage		87%	80%	96%	82%	81%	88%	75%	86%	89%	68%	79%
Avg Max Increase		6.48%	7.01%	5.82%	4.72%	5.02%	4.54%	7.69%	5.27%	4.73%	8.01%	4.10%
Max Increase		14.47%	18.00%	14.86%	11.40%	19.53%	14.68%	16.70%	12.62%	12.91%	20.86%	11.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase		25	15	17	18	16	17	18	14	19	19	18
Avg Max Decline		-2.24%	-0.62%	-0.98%	-1.32%	-1.42%	-1.34%	-1.29%	-1.44%	-1.57%	-0.77%	-0.68%
Max Decline		-7.57%	-4.84%	-5.33%	-5.34%	-7.34%	-6.89%	-3.54%	-4.74%	-8.28%	-4.77%	-4.22%
Avg Days to Max Decline		13	10	7	11	7	9	7	8	11	8	3
2008 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			No		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		43	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44	44
Closed Lower		13	19	18	14	23	18	24	22	25	22	20
Penetrated Low		7	14	13	6	15	15	18	17	20	11	8
Scenario Percentage		54%	74%	72%	43%	65%	83%	75%	77%	80%	50%	40%
Avg Max Decline		12.21%	8.11%	5.59%	10.84%	6.18%	9.01%	10.15%	10.77%	9.89%	9.03%	4.37%
Max Decline		22.48%	22.34%	14.34%	16.92%	15.74%	26.28%	33.40%	46.49%	37.88%	20.46%	14.71%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	13	14	23	17	18	18	16	17	19	12
Avg Max Increase		-2.54%	-0.57%	-1.07%	-4.03%	-2.57%	-2.04%	-1.00%	-1.37%	-2.04%	-2.03%	-0.49%
Max Increase		-5.77%	-2.21%	-4.41%	-9.27%	-8.14%	-8.29%	-4.60%	-8.41%	-9.98%	-7.30%	-2.58%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	8	4	9	13	7	7	5	10	7	2
2008 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		No			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet	Not Yet
High	16108	15157	14105	13414	14003	14393	14601	13603	13469	12941	11457	9521
Low	14998	12573	12923	11691	12522	13541	13453	12671	12632	11161	6995	7406
Close/Last	15308	13592	13603	12526	13850	14339	13481	13377	13073	11260	8577	8512