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| ScenarioSM Study for August Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jul 11, 2025 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul |
| Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
| Closed Higher | 21 | 22 | 27 | 20 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 21 | 20 | 21 | 20 | |
| Exceeded High | 15 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 7 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 71% | 86% | 67% | 80% | 86% | 87% | 78% | 71% | 75% | 76% | 35% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 9.72% | 8.07% | 6.78% | 8.85% | 8.36% | 7.88% | 9.67% | 11.50% | 15.39% | 12.02% | 9.07% | |
| Max Increase | 19.29% | 22.69% | 25.39% | 26.55% | 31.20% | 16.79% | 24.07% | 55.66% | 36.05% | 40.94% | 23.84% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 21 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 10 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.70% | -2.12% | -1.70% | -1.83% | -1.52% | -1.60% | -1.98% | -2.00% | -1.93% | -0.78% | -1.94% | |
| Max Decline | -6.29% | -10.02% | -4.62% | -9.43% | -6.93% | -5.82% | -5.31% | -6.43% | -4.69% | -3.36% | -5.57% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 4 | |
| 2025 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
| Action | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
