MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Soybeans(CBOT) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	22	26	21	23	25	24	21	21	21	19
Exceeded High		17	18	17	17	20	21	18	15	16	15	5
Scenario Percentage		74%	82%	65%	81%	87%	84%	75%	71%	76%	71%	26%
Avg Max Increase		10.11%	8.52%	6.97%	9.11%	8.43%	8.63%	9.93%	11.50%	15.40%	11.60%	9.27%
Max Increase		19.29%	22.69%	25.39%	26.55%	31.20%	23.71%	24.07%	55.66%	36.05%	36.21%	19.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	21	16	16	15	17	17	15	16	12	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.75%	-2.18%	-1.64%	-1.84%	-1.47%	-1.51%	-2.05%	-2.00%	-1.87%	-0.75%	-1.05%
Max Decline		-6.29%	-10.02%	-4.62%	-9.43%	-6.93%	-5.82%	-5.97%	-6.43%	-4.69%	-3.36%	-5.57%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	7	9	11	6	7	13	4	8	3	2
2022 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	No		Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		22	22	19	24	22	20	21	24	24	24	26
Penetrated Low		19	16	11	19	16	15	18	18	23	21	17
Scenario Percentage		86%	73%	58%	79%	73%	75%	86%	75%	96%	88%	65%
Avg Max Decline		6.47%	5.97%	6.15%	5.30%	5.12%	6.15%	5.21%	8.07%	9.09%	8.31%	4.82%
Max Decline		21.15%	16.68%	11.32%	15.25%	16.46%	12.46%	11.75%	19.34%	22.71%	19.50%	15.01%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	16	17	15	15	13	18	17	18	12	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.57%	-1.94%	-2.53%	-1.25%	-2.17%	-1.80%	-2.07%	-3.54%	-3.41%	-2.94%	-0.64%
Max Increase		-6.22%	-6.35%	-6.99%	-4.20%	-7.29%	-3.96%	-7.63%	-14.35%	-12.26%	-12.80%	-1.86%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	5	12	8	7	8	9	9	10	6	1
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No				Yes		Yes	Yes
High	1347.75	1319.50	1291.50	1307.25	1371.25	1465.00	1692.25	1665.50	1676.75	1679.50	1689.50	1671.00
Low	1276.25	1269.75	1221.25	1213.25	1235.25	1341.25	1456.25	1544.75	1526.25	1530.50	1494.75	1407.75
Close/Last	1306.75	1275.25	1268.25	1237.75	1337.25	1460.50	1573.00	1555.25	1635.75	1620.25	1560.50	1637.00