MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		43	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	20	25	19	23	25	25	21	21	22	19
Exceeded High		15	17	16	15	19	21	18	14	17	17	5
Scenario Percentage		68%	85%	64%	79%	83%	84%	72%	67%	81%	77%	26%
Avg Max Increase		10.33%	7.69%	6.62%	8.75%	9.17%	9.61%	10.00%	14.25%	19.72%	16.20%	11.18%
Max Increase		19.29%	19.06%	25.39%	26.08%	31.20%	33.40%	24.07%	55.66%	63.40%	56.88%	23.84%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	20	17	17	18	17	17	16	16	11	10
Avg Max Decline		-2.00%	-2.27%	-1.88%	-2.07%	-1.64%	-1.41%	-1.77%	-1.61%	-1.81%	-0.71%	-0.98%
Max Decline		-6.29%	-10.02%	-4.62%	-9.43%	-6.93%	-5.82%	-5.97%	-5.37%	-4.69%	-3.36%	-4.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	8	11	11	6	5	12	4	7	2	4
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes					Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes					Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		43	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	23	19	26	22	20	20	24	24	23	26
Penetrated Low		18	18	12	20	16	15	17	19	24	21	19
Scenario Percentage		86%	78%	63%	77%	73%	75%	85%	79%	100%	91%	73%
Avg Max Decline		6.56%	6.88%	8.51%	6.50%	5.84%	6.47%	5.20%	8.01%	9.92%	9.36%	5.06%
Max Decline		21.15%	16.86%	28.03%	29.39%	19.55%	17.82%	14.97%	19.34%	39.38%	26.30%	15.01%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	16	16	16	15	10	17	16	17	12	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.59%	-2.14%	-2.06%	-1.26%	-2.12%	-2.00%	-2.07%	-3.46%	-3.14%	-2.96%	-0.91%
Max Increase		-6.22%	-6.35%	-4.88%	-4.20%	-7.29%	-3.96%	-7.63%	-14.35%	-12.26%	-12.80%	-6.63%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	7	9	8	7	7	10	10	10	7	2
2018 Contract Condition					Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High	1009.75	1019.25	1037.25	1035.50	1045.00	1026.50	1066.75	1086.00	1076.25	1058.00	1031.00	906.00
Low	953.50	977.25	990.25	998.50	979.50	968.25	991.50	1023.00	997.50	996.00	847.50	810.50
Close/Last	980.75	1003.00	1013.25	1018.00	986.00	1018.00	1063.25	1058.00	1050.75	1023.25	863.50	903.75