MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years	34	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	18	21	24	22	25	23	22	21	23	23	17
Exceeded High	11	17	15	18	20	20	16	14	19	17	5
Scenario Percentage	61%	81%	62%	82%	80%	87%	73%	67%	83%	74%	29%
Avg Max Increase	10.56%	5.58%	7.14%	8.86%	9.33%	10.08%	8.72%	17.78%	19.11%	15.44%	9.96%
Max Increase	15.33%	15.15%	16.16%	39.61%	37.25%	33.40%	21.18%	74.19%	63.40%	56.88%	23.84%
Avg Days To Max Increase	15	20	22	19	18	19	19	16	18	12	8
Avg Max Decline	-1.38%	-1.54%	-1.90%	-1.74%	-1.41%	-1.80%	-1.89%	-0.89%	-2.84%	-2.70%	-0.92%
Max Decline	-4.67%	-10.02%	-5.09%	-9.43%	-6.93%	-12.65%	-5.97%	-2.85%	-27.06%	-27.86%	-4.85%
Avg Days to Max Decline	8	7	11	9	5	7	13	4	8	5	2
2007 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years	34	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	16	22	20	23	20	22	22	24	22	22	27
Penetrated Low	13	15	14	15	15	16	17	19	20	18	22
Scenario Percentage	81%	68%	70%	65%	75%	73%	77%	79%	91%	82%	81%
Avg Max Decline	5.77%	6.56%	6.89%	7.25%	5.46%	6.40%	4.70%	6.61%	9.57%	8.79%	9.96%
Max Decline	13.55%	16.86%	28.03%	29.39%	19.55%	17.82%	14.97%	19.11%	39.38%	26.30%	36.15%
Avg Days To Max Decline	15	19	17	18	15	14	18	17	19	11	10
Avg Max Increase	-1.49%	-2.29%	-2.14%	-1.30%	-1.54%	-1.78%	-1.16%	-3.43%	-3.41%	-2.29%	-3.11%
Max Increase	-5.03%	-6.35%	-5.98%	-4.20%	-7.29%	-3.94%	-4.26%	-14.35%	-12.26%	-12.80%	-18.77%
Avg Days to Max Increase	6	8	10	8	5	8	6	10	12	5	5
2007 Contract Condition	Yes						Yes	Yes			Yes
Action	No						Yes	No			Yes
High	604.75	679.50	724.50	725.00	762.00	826.25	805.25	807.00	823.25	870.25	923.00
Low	587.00	591.00	672.00	686.75	691.00	755.00	760.25	732.50	741.75	799.00	808.75
Close/Last	597.50	673.00	720.00	725.00	753.00	807.50	783.00	749.50	813.50	855.75	834.00