|
ScenarioSM Study for June S & P 500(CME) as of Dec 31, 2010 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May |
Tested Years | 25 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 29 | |
Closed Higher | 10 | 19 | 13 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 18 | 16 | 19 | 18 | 19 | |
Exceeded High | 10 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 19 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 14 | |
Scenario Percentage | 100% | 68% | 92% | 82% | 100% | 95% | 89% | 81% | 84% | 89% | 74% | |
Avg Max Increase | 3.81% | 5.75% | 5.86% | 7.46% | 5.23% | 5.40% | 5.87% | 5.43% | 6.69% | 4.91% | 2.48% | |
Max Increase | 9.67% | 19.35% | 16.77% | 13.74% | 13.76% | 12.67% | 13.16% | 10.75% | 16.88% | 11.80% | 5.69% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 15 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 17 | 12 | 9 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.27% | -1.44% | -2.53% | -1.22% | -1.80% | -1.97% | -1.44% | -0.72% | -1.62% | -1.51% | -0.37% | |
Max Decline | -3.05% | -3.31% | -9.21% | -5.77% | -5.55% | -6.34% | -5.18% | -1.92% | -5.91% | -4.79% | -1.53% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |
2010 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet |
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