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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for S & P 500 Stock Index as of Jun 30, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   28 33 33 27 28 29 31 32 27 25 26
Exceeded High   24 30 32 24 24 24 30 26 23 22 21
Scenario Percentage   86% 91% 97% 89% 86% 83% 97% 81% 85% 88% 81%
Avg Max Increase   6.62% 5.26% 5.54% 5.85% 5.25% 5.67% 4.86% 5.38% 5.37% 4.25% 2.89%
Max Increase   13.31% 12.74% 12.34% 13.54% 11.15% 16.61% 12.57% 12.91% 13.37% 9.69% 7.96%
Avg Days To Max Increase   20 19 17 17 18 18 17 22 21 17 16
Avg Max Decline   -1.43% -1.91% -1.73% -1.12% -1.23% -1.55% -1.93% -1.72% -1.52% -2.04% -1.12%
Max Decline   -5.41% -5.32% -6.36% -5.29% -5.82% -5.72% -7.37% -5.44% -7.48% -7.30% -4.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline   10 16 6 5 4 7 8 15 10 10 4
2025 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes       Yes Yes    
Action     Yes   Yes       Yes Not Yet    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   16 12 12 18 17 16 13 13 17 20 18
Penetrated Low   6 7 7 15 11 7 5 9 11 15 9
Scenario Percentage   38% 58% 58% 83% 65% 44% 38% 69% 65% 75% 50%
Avg Max Decline   9.56% 5.00% 8.51% 8.23% 9.27% 3.37% 7.74% 6.94% 9.29% 9.17% 7.08%
Max Decline   23.51% 14.26% 13.50% 32.05% 25.81% 4.44% 11.98% 27.31% 21.62% 22.00% 16.65%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 13 16 14 16 11 12 13 17 18 22
Avg Max Increase   -2.17% -2.58% -2.15% -1.81% -1.86% -1.47% -2.35% -1.44% -2.11% -2.06% -1.99%
Max Increase   -4.00% -5.63% -6.28% -5.93% -6.17% -5.02% -4.25% -3.83% -3.51% -7.73% -4.52%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 10 5 4 6 6 10 7 11 7 5
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes        
Action   No   Yes   Yes Yes No        
High 5765.50 5876.75 6044.25 6100.00 6128.00 6147.50 5986.00 5695.25 5968.50 6215.00    
Low 5402.50 5674.00 5696.50 5835.75 5774.50 5837.75 5488.75 4835.25 5578.75 5862.50    
Close/Last 5762.50 5705.50 6032.50 5881.75 6040.50 5954.50 5611.75 5569.00 5911.75 6205.00    

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