MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for S & P 500 Stock Index as of Sep 29, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		34	26	27	29	32	31	26	25	27	20	28
Exceeded High		33	23	23	24	30	25	22	23	22	18	23
Scenario Percentage		97%	88%	85%	83%	94%	81%	85%	92%	81%	90%	82%
Avg Max Increase		5.38%	5.74%	5.31%	6.09%	4.80%	5.08%	5.58%	4.54%	4.72%	7.30%	4.70%
Max Increase		12.34%	13.54%	11.15%	16.61%	12.57%	12.91%	13.37%	9.69%	18.41%	20.54%	11.37%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	18	18	17	16	21	21	16	14	19	20
Avg Max Decline		-1.69%	-1.33%	-1.27%	-1.40%	-1.91%	-1.77%	-1.63%	-1.69%	-1.60%	-2.15%	-0.86%
Max Decline		-6.36%	-5.29%	-5.82%	-5.33%	-7.37%	-5.44%	-7.48%	-5.61%	-5.39%	-9.22%	-4.48%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	7	4	5	8	16	11	10	8	5	4
2023 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		11	19	18	16	12	14	18	20	17	24	16
Penetrated Low		7	16	10	7	5	9	12	15	12	16	4
Scenario Percentage		64%	84%	56%	44%	42%	64%	67%	75%	71%	67%	25%
Avg Max Decline		8.51%	7.90%	9.79%	3.37%	7.74%	6.94%	8.69%	9.17%	7.50%	8.74%	7.87%
Max Decline		13.50%	32.05%	25.81%	4.44%	11.98%	27.31%	21.62%	22.00%	16.65%	36.38%	23.51%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	13	16	11	12	13	16	18	15	14	12
Avg Max Increase		-2.15%	-1.84%	-1.77%	-1.47%	-2.35%	-1.44%	-1.96%	-2.06%	-3.22%	-2.38%	-1.72%
Max Increase		-6.28%	-5.93%	-6.17%	-5.02%	-4.25%	-3.83%	-3.51%	-7.73%	-11.33%	-6.18%	-4.00%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	5	6	6	10	7	11	7	10	9	2
2023 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes						Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes						Yes	Not Yet
High	4080.00	4101.00	4094.25	4195.50	4110.75	4170.00	4231.00	4458.50	4607.00	4584.50	4540.75
Low	3698.50	3764.50	3794.25	3943.00	3808.75	4049.25	4048.25	4171.75	4385.00	4336.75	4238.75
Close/Last	4080.00	3839.50	4076.50	3970.25	4109.25	4169.50	4179.75	4450.50	4589.00	4507.75	4288.00