MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for S & P 500 Stock Index as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		27	26	28	31	29	27	23	26	21	26	33
Exceeded High		24	22	23	29	24	23	21	21	18	22	26
Scenario Percentage		89%	85%	82%	94%	83%	85%	91%	81%	86%	85%	79%
Avg Max Increase		5.61%	5.06%	6.07%	4.87%	5.06%	5.22%	4.58%	4.86%	7.36%	6.69%	3.19%
Max Increase		13.54%	11.15%	16.61%	12.57%	12.91%	13.37%	9.69%	18.41%	20.54%	13.31%	6.98%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	18	17	16	21	20	17	13	19	19	17
Avg Max Decline		-1.34%	-1.23%	-1.49%	-1.87%	-1.81%	-1.57%	-1.76%	-1.42%	-2.15%	-1.25%	-0.93%
Max Decline		-5.29%	-5.82%	-5.33%	-7.37%	-5.44%	-7.48%	-5.61%	-3.43%	-9.22%	-5.41%	-4.59%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	4	6	8	15	10	10	7	5	9	4
2020 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		18	19	17	12	16	17	22	18	23	18	12
Penetrated Low		16	11	8	5	10	12	17	13	15	8	5
Scenario Percentage		89%	58%	47%	42%	63%	71%	77%	72%	65%	44%	42%
Avg Max Decline		7.57%	9.15%	3.26%	5.93%	6.40%	8.69%	8.44%	6.71%	9.56%	7.89%	2.64%
Max Decline		32.05%	25.81%	4.44%	11.51%	27.31%	21.62%	22.00%	16.65%	36.38%	23.51%	4.64%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	17	13	10	12	16	18	17	14	14	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.76%	-1.84%	-1.60%	-1.75%	-1.30%	-1.96%	-1.91%	-3.11%	-2.04%	-1.49%	-1.94%
Max Increase		-5.93%	-6.17%	-5.02%	-2.74%	-3.83%	-3.51%	-7.73%	-11.33%	-4.51%	-4.00%	-5.63%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	7	7	12	7	11	7	11	9	5	4
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes						Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No						No	No
High	3248.00	3337.75	3393.50	3136.50	2954.75	3068.75	3233.25	3280.00	3514.75	3588.00	3549.75	3644.25
Low	3070.50	3214.75	2855.75	2191.75	2447.50	2766.75	2965.75	3101.25	3284.50	3209.50	3234.00	3279.75
Close/Last	3230.75	3225.50	2954.25	2584.50	2912.50	3044.25	3100.25	3271.00	3500.25	3363.00	3270.00	3621.75