MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for S & P 500 Stock Index as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		27	26	29	31	27	25	20	25	19	27	30
Exceeded High		25	22	25	27	21	20	18	19	17	23	23
Scenario Percentage		93%	85%	86%	87%	78%	80%	90%	76%	89%	85%	77%
Avg Max Increase		5.82%	5.20%	6.08%	4.94%	5.07%	5.15%	4.67%	5.04%	7.29%	6.39%	3.17%
Max Increase		13.54%	11.08%	16.58%	12.57%	12.90%	13.07%	9.38%	18.33%	20.72%	13.32%	6.99%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	18	18	17	20	20	17	13	18	18	16
Avg Max Decline		-1.23%	-1.17%	-1.59%	-1.51%	-1.73%	-2.06%	-1.90%	-1.44%	-2.05%	-1.23%	-0.84%
Max Decline		-5.29%	-5.81%	-5.27%	-4.78%	-5.42%	-7.55%	-5.62%	-3.57%	-9.22%	-5.38%	-4.59%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	7	7	7	14	12	10	7	5	8	4
2016 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		18	19	16	14	18	20	25	20	25	17	15
Penetrated Low		17	14	9	7	12	15	20	14	17	9	7
Scenario Percentage		94%	74%	56%	50%	67%	75%	80%	70%	68%	53%	47%
Avg Max Decline		5.67%	6.26%	4.22%	5.55%	6.65%	8.51%	8.66%	7.41%	9.03%	7.68%	3.47%
Max Decline		19.26%	16.11%	7.85%	11.51%	27.31%	21.63%	22.00%	16.66%	36.38%	23.51%	7.08%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	16	17	15	15	17	18	16	16	13	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.54%	-1.59%	-1.67%	-2.28%	-1.99%	-2.03%	-1.81%	-2.72%	-1.85%	-1.08%	-0.69%
Max Increase		-5.95%	-6.07%	-5.08%	-4.02%	-6.64%	-5.37%	-7.69%	-11.34%	-4.50%	-4.00%	-5.64%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	8	9	15	7	11	6	11	8	5	4
2016 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes						Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No						Yes	Yes	Yes
High	2104.25	2038.20	1962.95	2072.20	2111.05	2103.50	2120.55	2177.10	2193.80	2187.85	2169.60	2214.10
Low	1993.25	1812.30	1810.10	1937.10	2033.80	2025.90	1991.70	2074.00	2147.60	2119.10	2114.70	2083.80
Close/Last	2043.95	1940.25	1932.25	2059.75	2065.30	2096.95	2098.85	2173.60	2170.95	2168.25	2126.15	2198.80