MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for S & P 500 Stock Index as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		27	25	30	30	25	24	20	26	20	26	29
Exceeded High		25	21	25	26	20	19	19	20	18	22	23
Scenario Percentage		93%	84%	83%	87%	80%	79%	95%	77%	90%	85%	79%
Avg Max Increase		5.82%	5.35%	6.15%	4.96%	5.15%	5.30%	4.85%	5.21%	7.08%	6.48%	3.37%
Max Increase		13.54%	11.08%	16.58%	12.57%	12.90%	13.07%	9.38%	18.33%	20.72%	13.32%	6.99%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	18	17	17	20	20	18	12	19	18	16
Avg Max Decline		-1.23%	-1.00%	-1.53%	-1.49%	-1.80%	-2.02%	-2.03%	-1.50%	-2.03%	-1.19%	-0.62%
Max Decline		-5.29%	-5.81%	-5.27%	-4.78%	-5.42%	-7.55%	-5.62%	-3.57%	-9.22%	-5.38%	-2.30%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	7	7	6	14	11	10	7	7	7	3
2013 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		18	20	15	15	20	21	25	19	24	18	16
Penetrated Low		16	14	9	8	13	16	19	14	17	10	8
Scenario Percentage		89%	70%	60%	53%	65%	76%	76%	74%	71%	56%	50%
Avg Max Decline		6.13%	6.26%	4.22%	6.73%	7.18%	8.04%	9.04%	7.41%	8.62%	6.96%	3.65%
Max Decline		19.26%	16.11%	7.85%	14.97%	27.31%	21.63%	22.00%	16.66%	36.38%	23.51%	7.08%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	16	17	16	16	17	19	16	15	13	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.59%	-1.59%	-1.67%	-1.99%	-1.80%	-1.85%	-1.87%	-2.72%	-1.80%	-1.19%	-0.52%
Max Increase		-5.95%	-6.07%	-5.08%	-4.02%	-6.64%	-5.37%	-7.69%	-11.34%	-4.50%	-4.00%	-5.64%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	8	9	13	7	9	6	11	8	5	3
2013 Contract Condition							Yes		Yes
Action							No		No
High	1448.00	1509.95	1530.95	1570.30	1597.55	1687.20	1654.20	1698.80	1709.65	1729.85	1775.20	1813.55
Low	1398.10	1426.20	1485.00	1501.95	1536.05	1581.30	1560.35	1604.55	1627.45	1633.40	1646.45	1746.20
Close/Last	1426.20	1498.10	1514.70	1569.20	1597.55	1630.75	1606.30	1685.75	1632.95	1681.55	1756.55	1805.80