MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for S & P 500 Stock Index as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		28	23	29	31	25	25	19	26	20	27	29
Exceeded High		26	19	24	27	20	20	18	20	18	24	22
Scenario Percentage		93%	83%	83%	87%	80%	80%	95%	77%	90%	89%	76%
Avg Max Increase		5.29%	5.35%	5.90%	4.52%	4.93%	4.71%	4.38%	5.20%	6.54%	5.88%	3.44%
Max Increase		13.54%	11.08%	13.82%	12.57%	12.90%	11.86%	8.63%	18.33%	20.72%	13.32%	6.99%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	18	16	17	19	18	19	13	20	17	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.22%	-0.57%	-1.39%	-1.44%	-1.38%	-1.48%	-1.72%	-1.30%	-1.67%	-1.10%	-0.46%
Max Decline		-5.29%	-2.07%	-5.27%	-4.78%	-3.72%	-7.55%	-4.23%	-3.57%	-9.22%	-5.38%	-2.30%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	6	7	8	13	9	10	7	7	7	2
2008 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes			Yes
Action					Yes	No			No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		17	22	16	14	20	20	26	19	24	17	16
Penetrated Low		15	15	10	7	13	15	20	14	17	10	10
Scenario Percentage		88%	68%	63%	50%	65%	75%	77%	74%	71%	59%	63%
Avg Max Decline		5.40%	5.68%	4.42%	6.35%	6.75%	8.14%	8.45%	6.93%	8.58%	6.77%	3.17%
Max Decline		11.84%	16.11%	7.85%	14.97%	27.31%	21.63%	22.00%	16.66%	36.38%	23.51%	7.08%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	16	17	18	19	19	19	16	15	13	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.13%	-1.37%	-1.85%	-2.10%	-1.67%	-1.99%	-1.72%	-2.94%	-1.65%	-0.91%	-0.40%
Max Increase		-4.05%	-6.07%	-5.08%	-4.02%	-6.64%	-5.37%	-7.69%	-11.34%	-4.50%	-4.00%	-5.64%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	7	10	15	8	10	6	12	8	5	3
2008 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	1523.55	1471.75	1396.00	1359.70	1404.55	1440.25	1404.05	1292.15	1313.15	1303.05	1167.05	1007.50
Low	1435.65	1270.05	1316.75	1257.00	1324.35	1373.05	1272.00	1200.45	1247.45	1106.40	839.80	741.00
Close/Last	1468.35	1378.55	1330.65	1322.70	1385.60	1400.40	1280.00	1267.40	1282.85	1164.75	968.75	896.25