MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Soybeans(CBOT) as of Nov 09, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	24	23	25	20	23	26	24	24	20	23
Exceeded High		18	15	19	16	15	19	21	19	16	17	18
Scenario Percentage		82%	63%	83%	64%	75%	83%	81%	79%	67%	85%	78%
Avg Max Increase		8.94%	10.82%	7.46%	6.39%	8.84%	9.11%	10.07%	10.26%	14.26%	15.52%	7.96%
Max Increase		27.34%	20.42%	21.20%	24.23%	23.64%	30.26%	35.97%	26.33%	57.41%	37.78%	15.90%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	19	20	16	16	17	15	17	19	12	8
Avg Max Decline		-0.86%	-2.00%	-2.74%	-1.80%	-2.38%	-1.82%	-1.49%	-1.88%	-2.51%	-1.77%	-0.35%
Max Decline		-3.69%	-5.58%	-10.49%	-4.68%	-9.44%	-7.11%	-5.31%	-6.33%	-12.49%	-4.60%	-1.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	6	7	9	11	7	5	12	5	8	1
2020 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes				Yes
Action			Yes	No		Yes		No				Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	21	22	20	25	22	19	21	21	25	22
Penetrated Low		13	19	16	12	19	16	14	18	16	23	15
Scenario Percentage		57%	90%	73%	60%	76%	73%	74%	86%	76%	92%	68%
Avg Max Decline		8.88%	6.84%	6.92%	6.78%	5.44%	5.13%	5.92%	5.06%	7.34%	8.37%	6.58%
Max Decline		36.75%	21.93%	17.58%	12.33%	15.71%	15.37%	13.01%	11.89%	19.74%	40.00%	24.31%
Avg Days To Max Decline		11	14	16	16	15	15	12	16	21	12	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.39%	-1.97%	-2.08%	-2.65%	-1.54%	-2.23%	-1.91%	-2.10%	-3.29%	-2.71%	-0.34%
Max Increase		-7.28%	-7.11%	-6.38%	-7.19%	-4.18%	-7.20%	-4.28%	-7.37%	-14.89%	-9.10%	-2.18%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	6	5	12	9	7	8	9	8	7	2
2020 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No			Yes		Yes		Yes	No	Not Yet
High	969.75	943.75	948.25	985.50	976.50	980.25	984.25	920.75	920.50	890.25	861.25	891.00
Low	929.50	901.25	901.75	944.75	918.00	911.25	900.25	889.75	829.00	818.50	828.50	834.00
Close/Last	931.75	914.25	947.00	967.25	918.25	979.75	900.50	901.50	889.50	855.25	840.75	884.25