MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	23	22	25	19	23	25	25	24	19	23
Exceeded High		18	14	19	16	14	19	21	19	16	16	19
Scenario Percentage		82%	61%	86%	64%	74%	83%	84%	76%	67%	84%	83%
Avg Max Increase		8.94%	11.51%	7.46%	6.75%	9.43%	9.40%	10.07%	10.26%	14.26%	15.97%	8.67%
Max Increase		27.34%	20.42%	21.20%	24.23%	23.64%	30.26%	35.97%	26.33%	57.41%	37.78%	15.90%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	18	20	17	17	19	15	17	19	11	8
Avg Max Decline		-0.86%	-2.19%	-2.74%	-2.07%	-2.54%	-1.95%	-1.49%	-1.88%	-2.51%	-1.67%	-0.37%
Max Decline		-3.69%	-5.58%	-10.49%	-4.68%	-9.44%	-7.11%	-5.31%	-6.33%	-12.49%	-4.60%	-1.68%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	7	7	10	12	7	5	12	5	7	1
2018 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	22	23	20	26	22	20	20	21	26	22
Penetrated Low		12	20	18	12	21	16	15	17	17	23	15
Scenario Percentage		57%	91%	78%	60%	81%	73%	75%	85%	81%	88%	68%
Avg Max Decline		9.36%	7.51%	7.31%	8.99%	6.41%	5.88%	6.41%	5.06%	7.25%	8.09%	6.20%
Max Decline		36.75%	21.93%	17.58%	28.44%	30.14%	19.95%	17.31%	14.96%	19.74%	37.60%	21.29%
Avg Days To Max Decline		11	14	16	16	15	14	10	16	19	11	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.44%	-2.06%	-2.27%	-2.06%	-1.57%	-2.18%	-2.11%	-2.06%	-3.25%	-2.30%	-0.34%
Max Increase		-7.28%	-7.11%	-6.57%	-4.50%	-4.18%	-7.20%	-4.28%	-7.37%	-14.89%	-7.62%	-2.18%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	6	5	9	8	7	7	9	9	6	2
2018 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No				Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
High	1058.75	1022.50	1020.00	1038.50	1035.00	1045.00	1025.25	1068.00	1090.25	1078.00	1055.50	1026.50
Low	982.75	952.00	973.25	989.00	996.50	976.75	965.25	988.75	1020.25	994.50	992.50	841.50
Close/Last	1028.75	980.00	1002.50	1012.25	1017.25	983.25	1016.25	1064.25	1055.50	1048.50	1018.50	858.50