MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Soybeans(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		36	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		19	25	23	25	21	25	24	22	23	21	21
Exceeded High		16	16	19	15	16	21	21	17	15	18	15
Scenario Percentage		84%	64%	83%	60%	76%	84%	88%	77%	65%	86%	71%
Avg Max Increase		8.64%	10.00%	6.32%	8.11%	10.92%	10.11%	10.03%	8.84%	19.83%	16.33%	9.36%
Max Increase		27.34%	16.50%	21.20%	24.23%	42.65%	40.03%	35.97%	20.82%	90.20%	37.78%	15.90%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	19	19	21	19	18	16	18	18	13	8
Avg Max Decline		-0.89%	-1.92%	-2.12%	-2.07%	-2.04%	-1.38%	-1.72%	-2.00%	-1.25%	-1.33%	-0.39%
Max Decline		-3.69%	-5.58%	-10.49%	-5.32%	-9.44%	-7.11%	-11.62%	-6.33%	-5.33%	-4.60%	-1.68%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	8	5	11	10	6	7	12	3	6	1
2008 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		36	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		17	20	22	20	23	20	21	23	22	24	24
Penetrated Low		11	16	15	14	17	15	16	18	17	21	15
Scenario Percentage		65%	80%	68%	70%	74%	75%	76%	78%	77%	88%	63%
Avg Max Decline		5.62%	6.95%	6.93%	7.13%	6.79%	5.55%	6.23%	4.80%	5.73%	7.36%	8.00%
Max Decline		13.81%	20.24%	16.18%	28.44%	30.14%	19.95%	17.31%	14.96%	16.01%	40.00%	37.00%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	16	18	16	16	15	14	15	18	12	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.81%	-2.19%	-2.29%	-2.24%	-1.43%	-1.54%	-1.83%	-1.27%	-2.89%	-2.49%	-0.06%
Max Increase		-7.28%	-6.26%	-6.57%	-7.43%	-4.18%	-6.58%	-4.01%	-4.43%	-14.89%	-9.10%	-2.08%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	8	6	9	9	5	8	5	7	8	2
2008 Contract Condition									Yes
Action									Yes
High	981.50	932.50	1043.25	1057.00	1138.00	1272.00	1375.25	1548.25	1596.00	1415.00	1402.00	1607.25
Low	880.00	848.50	931.00	965.00	1006.50	1098.50	1220.75	1307.00	1215.00	1121.50	1244.00	1346.50
Close/Last	901.50	922.00	1022.00	1049.50	1107.00	1235.00	1307.25	1546.00	1215.00	1314.00	1363.50	1605.00