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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Sep 30, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   23 25 24 22 21 22 18 26 17 24 25
Exceeded High   19 18 18 18 17 16 12 23 14 17 7
Scenario Percentage   83% 72% 75% 82% 81% 73% 67% 88% 82% 71% 28%
Avg Max Increase   8.30% 7.10% 10.84% 14.52% 13.73% 12.04% 11.64% 10.83% 13.66% 9.69% 4.87%
Max Increase   25.95% 14.06% 36.01% 52.81% 32.39% 30.45% 29.58% 39.86% 31.35% 22.70% 9.26%
Avg Days To Max Increase   20 19 14 15 16 17 19 16 14 12 7
Avg Max Decline   -2.10% -1.97% -2.50% -2.06% -2.13% -2.15% -4.72% -2.41% -2.24% -2.23% -0.85%
Max Decline   -7.74% -5.44% -7.95% -7.71% -6.58% -10.98% -8.86% -15.85% -7.84% -6.35% -3.44%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 12 13 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 1
2024 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes       Yes    
Action       Yes Yes No       Not Yet    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   22 20 21 23 24 23 27 19 28 21 20
Penetrated Low   16 13 15 17 23 20 21 17 25 16 12
Scenario Percentage   73% 65% 71% 74% 96% 87% 78% 89% 89% 76% 60%
Avg Max Decline   6.28% 6.65% 5.34% 7.37% 6.71% 9.13% 7.81% 7.78% 6.12% 5.22% 5.61%
Max Decline   19.62% 13.66% 13.88% 13.77% 18.87% 18.07% 24.50% 34.83% 18.14% 12.73% 24.81%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 16 19 19 19 18 18 15 13 12 8
Avg Max Increase   -1.19% -2.43% -2.62% -2.52% -4.50% -3.21% -2.10% -2.73% -2.01% -2.23% -0.96%
Max Increase   -5.77% -7.61% -9.16% -9.66% -16.12% -12.96% -8.26% -7.05% -7.10% -7.41% -3.13%
Avg Days to Max Increase   5 10 10 14 11 6 9 8 10 3 1
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes      
Action   Yes No       Yes Yes Not Yet      
High 393.40 377.80 363.20 354.60 361.70 382.30 360.30 335.90 335.00 346.90    
Low 375.50 350.80 333.30 334.60 335.80 350.40 335.30 306.70 298.50 310.60    
Close/Last 378.30 362.60 337.30 346.30 355.00 359.40 335.50 315.70 313.00 341.60    

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