MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Dec 30, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	24	22	23	25	21	17	28	17	23	25
Exceeded High		20	18	17	19	20	16	12	24	14	16	9
Scenario Percentage		87%	75%	77%	83%	80%	76%	71%	86%	82%	70%	36%
Avg Max Increase		8.53%	7.90%	11.14%	19.46%	15.72%	13.57%	12.27%	10.64%	16.86%	14.16%	13.87%
Max Increase		25.95%	16.47%	36.01%	60.31%	36.09%	31.19%	29.58%	39.86%	31.35%	79.78%	58.73%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	20	15	16	15	16	17	16	14	11	10
Avg Max Decline		-2.17%	-2.46%	-2.07%	-2.42%	-2.79%	-1.89%	-5.11%	-2.03%	-2.75%	-2.16%	-0.78%
Max Decline		-7.74%	-8.70%	-4.80%	-7.71%	-21.10%	-10.98%	-13.58%	-15.85%	-7.84%	-7.05%	-3.44%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	12	13	8	8	6	9	8	5	6	1
2016 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes	Yes	Yes	No				Not Yet	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	21	23	22	20	24	28	17	28	22	20
Penetrated Low		16	14	16	16	19	20	21	15	24	16	11
Scenario Percentage		76%	67%	70%	73%	95%	83%	75%	88%	86%	73%	55%
Avg Max Decline		6.88%	8.04%	6.17%	7.68%	6.67%	10.37%	8.00%	9.98%	7.28%	7.02%	6.38%
Max Decline		19.62%	25.08%	20.77%	13.77%	18.87%	27.18%	24.50%	34.83%	19.87%	21.72%	24.99%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	15	17	16	19	15	16	17	14	12	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.22%	-2.34%	-2.72%	-2.35%	-4.79%	-2.77%	-1.89%	-2.29%	-2.23%	-2.32%	-0.98%
Max Increase		-5.77%	-7.61%	-9.16%	-9.66%	-16.12%	-12.96%	-8.26%	-7.05%	-7.10%	-7.41%	-3.13%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	8	8	10	11	5	8	6	11	5	1
2016 Contract Condition			Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			No					Yes	Yes	No
High	299.20	284.40	281.40	283.80	332.50	379.20	418.70	402.20	346.70	321.30	328.80	326.90
Low	277.50	274.30	267.20	268.80	274.10	326.60	367.60	330.20	305.50	294.10	295.30	304.80
Close/Last	278.00	279.50	270.10	278.80	329.80	372.10	401.00	347.70	306.70	299.60	316.10	316.40