MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Dec 30, 2011
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	24	20	23	26	21	16	29	19	25	25
Exceeded High		19	18	15	19	22	17	11	24	16	18	11
Scenario Percentage		90%	75%	75%	83%	85%	81%	69%	83%	84%	72%	44%
Avg Max Increase		8.01%	6.85%	9.72%	18.75%	14.29%	11.65%	12.53%	10.17%	15.50%	13.09%	11.71%
Max Increase		25.95%	16.47%	30.82%	60.31%	36.09%	31.19%	29.58%	39.86%	31.35%	79.78%	58.73%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	18	15	16	14	15	18	16	15	11	10
Avg Max Decline		-2.32%	-2.30%	-1.99%	-1.87%	-2.53%	-1.97%	-5.07%	-1.54%	-2.50%	-2.16%	-1.01%
Max Decline		-7.74%	-8.70%	-4.80%	-6.63%	-21.10%	-10.98%	-13.58%	-3.74%	-7.84%	-7.05%	-4.87%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	12	13	6	8	7	9	10	5	6	2
2011 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		Yes				Yes	No		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		20	21	25	22	19	24	28	16	26	20	20
Penetrated Low		17	14	17	17	17	20	21	13	23	13	11
Scenario Percentage		85%	67%	68%	77%	89%	83%	75%	81%	88%	65%	55%
Avg Max Decline		6.71%	7.69%	5.27%	6.85%	7.21%	9.79%	6.36%	10.87%	6.59%	6.60%	6.26%
Max Decline		19.62%	25.08%	20.77%	13.77%	18.87%	27.18%	24.50%	34.83%	19.87%	21.72%	24.99%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	14	14	16	21	16	13	15	15	12	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.14%	-2.22%	-2.38%	-2.20%	-5.31%	-2.66%	-1.53%	-2.08%	-2.21%	-2.65%	-0.84%
Max Increase		-5.77%	-7.61%	-9.16%	-9.66%	-16.12%	-12.96%	-8.26%	-7.05%	-7.10%	-7.41%	-3.13%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	8	8	10	13	5	7	5	9	6	1
2011 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	Yes	No			Yes		Yes
High	334.80	354.00	364.30	370.00	370.90	359.80	368.30	371.50	390.40	387.70	330.50	318.00
Low	297.00	325.20	331.00	329.00	345.10	337.00	329.10	331.60	341.00	306.50	300.90	280.60
Close/Last	333.50	348.30	347.20	368.80	359.10	351.20	330.90	358.80	387.80	308.60	316.10	290.40