MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for October Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years		44	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	22	21	24	22	23	23	21	17	26	18
Exceeded High		13	18	17	18	17	17	17	16	11	22	13
Scenario Percentage		65%	82%	81%	75%	77%	74%	74%	76%	65%	85%	72%
Avg Max Increase		8.49%	7.98%	9.31%	7.35%	11.63%	17.08%	15.37%	12.40%	12.74%	9.11%	7.59%
Max Increase		36.92%	22.94%	27.90%	15.77%	37.45%	56.84%	34.62%	30.92%	31.40%	20.50%	11.61%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	19	20	16	14	16	14	16	19	13	9
Avg Max Decline		-2.34%	-2.00%	-1.79%	-2.08%	-2.33%	-2.01%	-1.85%	-1.92%	-4.56%	-1.69%	-1.33%
Max Decline		-4.97%	-10.03%	-6.28%	-6.31%	-4.60%	-7.19%	-6.45%	-10.26%	-8.64%	-3.99%	-6.42%
Avg Days to Max Decline		14	12	8	12	15	7	5	9	9	8	2
2020 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years		44	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		24	21	23	21	22	22	22	23	28	18	27
Penetrated Low		17	16	19	14	16	16	20	21	22	16	18
Scenario Percentage		71%	76%	83%	67%	73%	73%	91%	91%	79%	89%	67%
Avg Max Decline		5.38%	5.95%	6.28%	6.19%	5.39%	6.93%	7.99%	9.83%	8.18%	7.00%	4.02%
Max Decline		10.37%	12.65%	19.24%	13.64%	13.34%	14.83%	29.05%	29.14%	25.57%	32.20%	13.03%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	16	17	14	19	17	20	17	17	11	7
Avg Max Increase		-1.33%	-1.49%	-1.93%	-2.14%	-3.22%	-2.59%	-4.88%	-2.84%	-2.96%	-2.56%	-1.09%
Max Increase		-4.64%	-4.19%	-6.57%	-7.74%	-13.07%	-9.57%	-17.08%	-12.69%	-18.49%	-4.89%	-5.03%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	8	9	11	10	12	12	7	11	8	2
2020 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	326.00	321.00	315.60	316.80	312.90	315.30	308.30	296.60	298.50	304.20	309.50	346.50
Low	317.30	308.00	308.10	305.20	300.60	297.50	290.10	286.90	285.80	287.90	283.10	302.10
Close/Last	319.50	308.40	313.30	305.70	311.40	308.00	296.00	288.40	292.90	293.40	306.90	339.70