MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for October Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years	36	41	42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	19	24	20	25	20	23	26	22	16	27	18
Exceeded High	12	18	16	20	15	17	21	18	11	21	11
Scenario Percentage	63%	75%	80%	80%	75%	74%	81%	82%	69%	78%	61%
Avg Max Increase	9.64%	8.80%	9.60%	7.06%	9.78%	21.73%	14.75%	10.41%	12.22%	8.39%	8.01%
Max Increase	36.92%	30.69%	27.90%	17.59%	29.43%	69.21%	34.62%	29.41%	31.40%	20.35%	11.61%
Avg Days To Max Increase	19	20	21	16	15	20	14	16	15	14	9
Avg Max Decline	-1.77%	-1.98%	-1.83%	-2.36%	-1.86%	-1.44%	-2.91%	-2.51%	-5.22%	-1.68%	-1.36%
Max Decline	-4.97%	-10.03%	-6.28%	-13.66%	-4.43%	-6.57%	-28.11%	-10.26%	-13.89%	-3.99%	-5.61%
Avg Days to Max Decline	6	13	6	13	14	6	6	9	10	9	2
2009 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep
Tested Years	36	41	42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	17	16	22	20	24	22	19	22	28	17	27
Penetrated Low	12	11	19	14	16	16	16	20	21	13	21
Scenario Percentage	71%	69%	86%	70%	67%	73%	84%	91%	75%	76%	78%
Avg Max Decline	5.79%	6.15%	6.40%	7.06%	5.15%	6.90%	9.10%	10.19%	6.83%	9.61%	10.21%
Max Decline	10.37%	11.49%	19.24%	26.14%	22.29%	14.96%	29.05%	29.14%	25.57%	32.20%	41.84%
Avg Days To Max Decline	12	16	15	13	17	15	20	16	17	11	11
Avg Max Increase	-1.02%	-1.78%	-1.38%	-1.94%	-2.76%	-2.54%	-5.33%	-2.70%	-3.06%	-1.93%	-2.83%
Max Increase	-4.64%	-9.09%	-6.30%	-7.74%	-13.07%	-9.57%	-17.08%	-12.69%	-18.49%	-4.89%	-18.55%
Avg Days to Max Increase	8	8	6	8	9	9	13	6	12	7	-30
2009 Contract Condition	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes
Action	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	No		Yes
High	289.70	305.10	305.80	288.20	279.50	282.60	335.20	350.00	332.00	329.00	311.40
Low	253.90	239.10	279.90	241.00	232.50	259.00	280.00	300.30	269.50	281.50	276.00
Close/Last	259.00	305.10	287.90	247.60	265.40	279.20	331.50	314.30	307.20	308.80	288.70