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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Dec 06, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   22 23 22 21 25 26 24 20 23 19 25
Exceeded High   18 15 17 17 20 20 18 13 18 11 18
Scenario Percentage   82% 65% 77% 81% 80% 77% 75% 65% 78% 58% 72%
Avg Max Increase   7.95% 9.19% 8.43% 9.63% 7.73% 11.37% 14.55% 16.26% 12.21% 13.08% 4.76%
Max Increase   16.31% 33.81% 19.81% 29.54% 19.70% 40.06% 58.77% 35.87% 29.95% 32.53% 11.15%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 18 21 22 20 14 16 17 18 14 7
Avg Max Decline   -1.94% -1.86% -2.26% -2.08% -2.57% -2.20% -2.28% -2.41% -2.00% -3.62% -0.99%
Max Decline   -10.00% -4.81% -9.94% -6.67% -9.06% -5.16% -10.17% -6.53% -9.96% -8.24% -3.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 11 12 7 13 12 8 11 9 7 2
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes      
Action   Yes No       Yes Yes No      
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   22 21 23 24 20 19 21 25 22 26 20
Penetrated Low   16 16 17 21 13 13 18 24 19 21 11
Scenario Percentage   73% 76% 74% 88% 65% 68% 86% 96% 86% 81% 55%
Avg Max Decline   5.31% 5.38% 6.68% 6.53% 6.42% 6.11% 7.02% 7.00% 9.13% 6.14% 3.13%
Max Decline   15.00% 10.98% 13.85% 19.72% 12.62% 11.56% 15.48% 20.60% 18.89% 15.60% 7.08%
Avg Days To Max Decline   14 15 16 16 14 20 20 19 16 8 8
Avg Max Increase   -1.55% -1.55% -1.47% -2.14% -2.02% -2.51% -3.31% -4.38% -3.24% -1.83% -1.54%
Max Increase   -4.58% -4.50% -4.38% -6.98% -8.16% -6.64% -9.68% -15.88% -13.58% -11.50% -5.37%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 10 8 9 10 11 14 12 8 6 2
2024 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes
Action       Yes Yes No       Yes Yes Not Yet
High 388.40 402.50 423.70 396.50 380.50 365.40 351.80 360.20 383.90 357.30 339.50 343.70
Low 367.00 367.60 391.80 377.70 351.60 329.90 331.30 331.90 346.80 335.40 313.00 299.40
Close/Last 371.40 395.50 397.80 380.90 364.80 333.30 342.90 352.30 355.90 335.70 327.30 311.60

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Central banks bought big, but the COT report waves a red flag. Seasonal gains await—Market players, read or regret! https://tinyurl.com/4antcta9