MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Nov 09, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	22	21	22	26	24	24	22	23	17	27
Exceeded High		16	13	16	18	20	20	17	15	17	10	21
Scenario Percentage		80%	59%	76%	82%	77%	83%	71%	68%	74%	59%	78%
Avg Max Increase		7.40%	8.43%	8.56%	9.27%	8.82%	11.44%	17.29%	17.47%	12.07%	13.75%	5.61%
Max Increase		16.31%	33.81%	19.81%	29.54%	19.70%	40.06%	58.77%	35.87%	29.95%	32.53%	12.89%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	19	22	21	21	15	17	16	17	15	9
Avg Max Decline		-1.90%	-1.90%	-1.90%	-2.14%	-2.51%	-2.06%	-2.22%	-2.21%	-1.66%	-4.60%	-1.67%
Max Decline		-10.00%	-4.81%	-9.94%	-6.67%	-9.06%	-5.16%	-10.17%	-6.53%	-9.96%	-8.69%	-4.53%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	12	11	7	13	14	8	9	8	9	4
2020 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes				Yes		Yes
Action		No		Yes		Yes				Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	22	23	23	19	21	21	23	22	28	18
Penetrated Low		16	16	16	20	13	15	18	23	20	23	11
Scenario Percentage		76%	73%	70%	87%	68%	71%	86%	100%	91%	82%	61%
Avg Max Decline		5.31%	5.38%	6.26%	6.38%	6.42%	5.65%	6.25%	8.00%	10.30%	6.31%	3.33%
Max Decline		15.00%	10.98%	13.85%	19.72%	12.62%	11.56%	15.48%	34.20%	33.18%	15.60%	7.08%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	15	16	16	14	18	18	18	16	8	11
Avg Max Increase		-1.55%	-1.55%	-1.57%	-2.24%	-2.02%	-2.23%	-3.32%	-4.55%	-2.72%	-1.49%	-2.26%
Max Increase		-4.58%	-4.50%	-4.38%	-6.98%	-8.16%	-6.64%	-9.68%	-15.88%	-13.58%	-11.50%	-5.37%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	10	8	10	10	10	12	12	6	6	5
2020 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
High	321.10	327.00	321.50	316.20	317.00	312.90	316.60	310.10	296.60	296.70	302.00	307.00
Low	309.80	317.30	308.00	307.50	304.30	299.60	297.10	288.90	285.70	285.00	286.50	281.90
Close/Last	317.70	319.60	308.40	313.90	304.60	311.40	310.00	295.70	286.70	291.40	291.20	304.60