MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		41	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		19	23	20	22	25	25	24	22	23	18	27
Exceeded High		16	14	15	18	19	20	17	15	17	11	18
Scenario Percentage		84%	61%	75%	82%	76%	80%	71%	68%	74%	61%	67%
Avg Max Increase		7.40%	8.05%	9.07%	9.27%	9.19%	11.44%	17.29%	17.47%	13.45%	13.85%	5.22%
Max Increase		16.31%	33.81%	19.81%	29.54%	19.70%	40.06%	58.77%	35.87%	29.95%	32.53%	12.89%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	18	22	21	21	15	17	16	16	13	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.90%	-1.90%	-1.94%	-2.14%	-2.40%	-2.06%	-2.22%	-2.21%	-1.51%	-3.28%	-0.94%
Max Decline		-10.00%	-4.81%	-9.94%	-6.67%	-9.06%	-5.16%	-10.17%	-6.53%	-9.96%	-8.24%	-3.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	11	11	7	13	14	8	9	6	7	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		No				No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		41	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	21	24	23	20	20	21	23	22	27	18
Penetrated Low		16	15	17	20	14	14	18	22	20	22	10
Scenario Percentage		76%	71%	71%	87%	70%	70%	86%	96%	91%	81%	56%
Avg Max Decline		5.31%	5.65%	7.39%	6.97%	6.25%	5.49%	6.35%	8.34%	10.30%	6.38%	3.12%
Max Decline		15.00%	10.98%	25.53%	19.72%	12.62%	11.56%	15.48%	34.20%	33.18%	15.60%	7.08%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	14	16	15	13	18	17	18	16	8	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.55%	-1.47%	-1.53%	-2.19%	-1.87%	-2.39%	-3.28%	-4.59%	-2.72%	-1.55%	-1.67%
Max Increase		-4.58%	-4.50%	-4.38%	-6.98%	-8.16%	-6.64%	-9.68%	-15.88%	-13.58%	-11.50%	-5.37%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	7	8	9	9	10	10	12	6	6	3
2019 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	319.10	325.50	323.70	328.60	333.30	327.50	322.40	318.70	330.90	330.50	320.50	300.80
Low	308.00	309.40	312.00	317.30	319.50	313.10	307.80	302.30	286.90	311.80	299.70	288.90
Close/Last	309.70	313.40	321.50	319.30	320.50	313.30	313.00	303.20	324.20	317.30	300.50	289.30