MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		40	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		18	22	20	22	25	25	24	21	23	19	27
Exceeded High		15	13	15	18	19	20	17	15	17	11	18
Scenario Percentage		83%	59%	75%	82%	76%	80%	71%	71%	74%	58%	67%
Avg Max Increase		7.57%	8.38%	9.07%	9.27%	9.19%	11.44%	17.29%	17.47%	13.45%	14.06%	5.72%
Max Increase		16.31%	33.81%	19.81%	29.54%	19.70%	40.06%	58.77%	35.87%	29.95%	32.53%	12.89%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	18	22	21	21	15	17	16	16	13	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.99%	-1.94%	-1.94%	-2.14%	-2.40%	-2.06%	-2.22%	-2.21%	-1.51%	-3.28%	-1.00%
Max Decline		-10.00%	-4.81%	-9.94%	-6.67%	-9.06%	-5.16%	-10.17%	-6.53%	-9.96%	-8.24%	-3.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	10	11	7	13	14	8	9	6	7	2
2018 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		40	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	21	24	23	20	20	21	24	22	26	18
Penetrated Low		16	15	17	20	14	14	18	23	19	21	10
Scenario Percentage		76%	71%	71%	87%	70%	70%	86%	96%	86%	81%	56%
Avg Max Decline		5.31%	5.65%	7.63%	6.97%	7.95%	6.65%	6.89%	8.45%	10.37%	6.49%	3.42%
Max Decline		15.00%	10.98%	25.53%	19.72%	27.30%	24.52%	15.48%	34.20%	33.18%	15.60%	7.08%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	14	16	15	13	19	17	18	15	7	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.55%	-1.47%	-1.73%	-2.19%	-1.93%	-2.21%	-3.49%	-4.46%	-2.81%	-1.62%	-1.66%
Max Increase		-4.58%	-4.50%	-7.89%	-6.98%	-8.16%	-6.64%	-9.68%	-15.88%	-13.58%	-11.50%	-5.37%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	7	8	9	8	10	11	11	7	5	3
2018 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes					Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		Yes					Yes	Yes		Not Yet
High	328.50	336.40	336.50	348.60	348.60	382.40	387.80	397.20	399.10	377.40	341.50	339.80
Low	307.10	319.50	319.20	322.50	318.10	331.80	357.10	362.20	370.70	324.60	324.10	300.00
Close/Last	324.90	321.30	332.60	323.60	341.60	379.60	380.00	390.40	375.80	330.90	339.90	303.70