MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		38	42	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		16	22	23	21	25	24	25	23	24	20	28
Exceeded High		13	13	18	18	21	19	18	17	18	13	18
Scenario Percentage		81%	59%	78%	86%	84%	79%	72%	74%	75%	65%	64%
Avg Max Increase		7.97%	8.00%	10.52%	10.09%	9.35%	9.95%	20.19%	16.58%	12.85%	12.74%	5.22%
Max Increase		16.31%	33.81%	49.29%	29.94%	19.70%	32.85%	71.36%	35.87%	29.95%	32.53%	12.89%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	17	22	22	21	15	21	16	16	13	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.81%	-1.54%	-1.86%	-2.06%	-3.00%	-1.88%	-2.02%	-3.81%	-1.52%	-3.28%	-0.94%
Max Decline		-10.00%	-4.81%	-9.94%	-6.67%	-19.11%	-5.16%	-10.17%	-30.86%	-9.96%	-8.24%	-3.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	4	10	7	14	14	10	11	7	8	2
2014 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years		38	42	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	19	20	23	20	21	20	22	21	25	17
Penetrated Low		16	13	13	20	15	14	17	20	18	20	9
Scenario Percentage		76%	68%	65%	87%	75%	67%	85%	91%	86%	80%	53%
Avg Max Decline		5.01%	5.42%	8.87%	6.96%	7.60%	5.92%	6.82%	8.81%	10.43%	7.83%	5.02%
Max Decline		15.00%	10.98%	25.53%	19.72%	27.30%	24.52%	15.48%	34.20%	33.18%	41.44%	18.91%
Avg Days To Max Decline		11	13	16	16	12	16	18	19	14	8	8
Avg Max Increase		-1.43%	-1.28%	-1.72%	-1.89%	-1.92%	-1.85%	-3.67%	-4.91%	-2.79%	-1.85%	-0.90%
Max Increase		-4.58%	-4.50%	-7.89%	-4.97%	-8.16%	-6.64%	-9.68%	-15.88%	-13.58%	-11.50%	-5.37%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	8	8	8	8	7	11	13	5	6	3
2014 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes					Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			No					Yes	Yes
High	385.50	381.70	376.00	387.80	380.30	403.50	407.40	432.30	445.70	436.20	393.30	441.50
Low	365.60	364.10	356.00	368.50	363.40	367.20	386.80	403.00	414.60	390.50	354.50	353.80
Close/Last	365.60	364.70	372.80	373.60	368.20	397.50	406.60	431.80	436.10	392.60	362.00	439.50