MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	33	41	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	13	23	23	22	23	22	24	26	26	17	26
Exceeded High	11	14	17	17	19	18	18	20	19	10	17
Scenario Percentage	85%	61%	74%	77%	83%	82%	75%	77%	73%	59%	65%
Avg Max Increase	7.76%	7.65%	10.19%	9.35%	8.58%	9.81%	20.96%	15.39%	11.49%	13.55%	5.91%
Max Increase	16.31%	33.81%	49.29%	29.94%	19.70%	32.85%	71.36%	35.87%	28.74%	32.53%	12.89%
Avg Days To Max Increase	17	20	21	20	20	16	21	16	16	15	10
Avg Max Decline	-1.97%	-1.53%	-1.53%	-1.84%	-2.84%	-1.87%	-1.42%	-3.09%	-2.24%	-3.26%	-1.47%
Max Decline	-10.00%	-4.81%	-9.94%	-6.67%	-19.11%	-5.16%	-5.07%	-30.86%	-11.05%	-8.69%	-4.01%
Avg Days to Max Decline	7	5	9	6	15	14	8	8	8	9	3
2009 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action			Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug
Tested Years	33	41	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	19	17	19	22	22	22	21	19	19	28	19
Penetrated Low	14	12	11	20	17	14	18	17	17	22	15
Scenario Percentage	74%	71%	58%	91%	77%	64%	86%	89%	89%	79%	79%
Avg Max Decline	5.05%	5.26%	8.67%	6.59%	6.27%	5.76%	6.05%	9.76%	10.25%	7.92%	12.31%
Max Decline	15.00%	10.98%	25.53%	19.72%	27.30%	24.52%	15.48%	34.20%	33.18%	43.49%	53.73%
Avg Days To Max Decline	12	13	18	16	12	15	17	20	16	10	14
Avg Max Increase	-1.52%	-1.01%	-1.49%	-1.76%	-1.71%	-1.79%	-3.37%	-5.46%	-2.21%	-2.66%	-2.43%
Max Increase	-4.58%	-4.50%	-7.89%	-4.97%	-8.16%	-6.64%	-9.68%	-15.88%	-11.47%	-18.44%	-9.38%
Avg Days to Max Increase	9	7	6	9	9	8	10	14	7	7	6
2009 Contract Condition	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Not Yet
High	305.00	297.30	306.60	314.80	303.70	286.40	302.10	366.00	371.00	355.70	398.00
Low	250.90	258.50	242.00	294.00	250.00	242.30	274.20	298.00	324.00	285.00	307.50
Close/Last	284.70	262.30	306.60	301.80	255.70	275.50	299.70	347.50	339.30	332.50	382.50