MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		44	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	21	21	20	23	24	26	25	21	24	20
Exceeded High		17	16	13	15	19	19	20	17	14	17	4
Scenario Percentage		81%	76%	62%	75%	83%	79%	77%	68%	67%	71%	20%
Avg Max Increase		11.46%	8.69%	8.49%	8.25%	10.02%	11.21%	12.83%	14.51%	17.25%	12.07%	7.87%
Max Increase		21.18%	19.54%	29.40%	17.42%	30.93%	35.17%	45.55%	61.84%	37.46%	29.03%	20.76%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	19	15	21	18	20	16	17	18	13	6
Avg Max Decline		-1.59%	-2.60%	-2.16%	-2.54%	-2.03%	-2.28%	-1.96%	-2.70%	-2.05%	-1.20%	-0.77%
Max Decline		-5.58%	-9.99%	-5.09%	-9.97%	-7.12%	-7.02%	-5.39%	-14.56%	-6.22%	-9.50%	-1.61%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	9	10	12	6	9	10	8	9	4	2
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		44	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		22	23	23	24	22	21	18	20	24	20	25
Penetrated Low		20	16	16	18	19	15	11	16	24	14	17
Scenario Percentage		91%	70%	70%	75%	86%	71%	61%	80%	100%	70%	68%
Avg Max Decline		5.62%	6.06%	6.04%	6.91%	5.65%	5.72%	6.31%	5.68%	8.65%	10.10%	5.41%
Max Decline		16.36%	15.00%	10.99%	14.96%	15.00%	12.54%	10.27%	12.98%	41.12%	30.91%	14.38%
Avg Days To Max Decline		13	14	16	17	16	13	20	20	16	10	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.80%	-1.78%	-1.90%	-1.82%	-2.03%	-2.44%	-2.44%	-3.91%	-3.88%	-1.21%	-0.28%
Max Increase		-5.56%	-6.79%	-5.06%	-4.80%	-5.37%	-8.30%	-4.64%	-9.99%	-27.41%	-12.89%	-1.60%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	8	13	6	9	9	14	11	9	4	1
2021 Contract Condition							Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action							Yes			Yes	Not Yet	Not Yet
High	315.00	334.70	351.80	384.60	412.30	443.60	422.30	419.70	434.50	449.50	407.50	387.10
Low	294.30	311.60	330.90	343.00	368.00	394.50	401.10	388.80	397.00	379.00	340.50	347.30
Close/Last	314.20	331.30	344.90	375.70	406.90	407.90	407.30	419.60	419.70	396.50	377.50	352.60