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| ScenarioSM Study for July Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Jul 19, 2025 | ||||||||||||
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| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun |
| Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
| Closed Higher | 23 | 17 | 20 | 23 | 18 | 23 | 22 | 28 | 24 | 19 | 25 | |
| Exceeded High | 17 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 12 | 16 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 74% | 82% | 75% | 70% | 83% | 78% | 86% | 71% | 75% | 63% | 64% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 9.45% | 12.36% | 9.23% | 9.97% | 8.27% | 10.58% | 9.50% | 13.52% | 15.40% | 14.87% | 9.32% | |
| Max Increase | 29.23% | 21.52% | 21.36% | 26.78% | 21.15% | 29.48% | 24.47% | 53.72% | 65.68% | 39.51% | 27.23% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 15 | 20 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 10 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.10% | -2.06% | -3.14% | -2.18% | -2.82% | -1.86% | -2.62% | -2.82% | -2.92% | -2.10% | -0.83% | |
| Max Decline | -5.74% | -6.07% | -10.74% | -5.56% | -9.52% | -7.64% | -7.96% | -8.68% | -10.86% | -6.22% | -4.93% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 8 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 3 | |
| 2025 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | ||||||||||
| Action | No | Yes | ||||||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
