MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		42	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		25	17	20	23	18	22	23	25	25	22	25
Exceeded High		18	15	15	12	14	18	19	18	18	16	17
Scenario Percentage		72%	88%	75%	52%	78%	82%	83%	72%	72%	73%	68%
Avg Max Increase		9.52%	12.13%	10.11%	12.13%	11.93%	11.96%	12.66%	12.03%	21.91%	16.05%	9.81%
Max Increase		29.23%	21.52%	39.04%	44.25%	48.78%	29.48%	36.23%	34.60%	100.18%	39.51%	27.23%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	16	17	17	21	18	20	17	18	12	9
Avg Max Decline		-0.94%	-2.24%	-3.29%	-2.13%	-2.85%	-1.81%	-3.04%	-1.95%	-2.67%	-1.64%	-0.71%
Max Decline		-3.38%	-6.07%	-10.74%	-5.56%	-9.52%	-7.64%	-19.80%	-5.30%	-10.86%	-6.22%	-4.93%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	6	9	6	11	6	9	9	9	7	3
2015 Contract Condition				Yes				Yes				Yes
Action				Yes				No				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		42	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		17	26	25	22	26	23	21	20	20	23	20
Penetrated Low		10	25	19	15	18	21	16	13	13	20	12
Scenario Percentage		59%	96%	76%	68%	69%	91%	76%	65%	65%	87%	60%
Avg Max Decline		9.57%	7.00%	6.78%	8.29%	9.81%	6.11%	7.55%	7.15%	7.20%	6.69%	9.30%
Max Decline		33.13%	18.45%	18.18%	29.91%	28.40%	15.15%	31.68%	27.54%	16.08%	42.22%	43.20%
Avg Days To Max Decline		11	15	15	15	17	16	14	16	19	10	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.90%	-1.88%	-2.12%	-2.18%	-1.69%	-2.07%	-2.76%	-1.78%	-4.06%	-2.46%	0.61%
Max Increase		-4.82%	-5.35%	-6.93%	-6.47%	-9.50%	-5.65%	-8.62%	-4.61%	-9.98%	-9.96%	-2.05%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	11	7	9	5	8	11	7	12	5	1
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	374.00	355.70	351.30	352.50	366.70	356.30	348.80	347.10	340.50	332.00	317.90	360.40
Low	344.70	337.60	297.10	294.40	328.60	330.90	314.60	316.00	315.50	307.50	301.40	296.30
Close/Last	352.10	345.20	298.40	341.70	341.50	339.30	321.80	339.00	325.20	316.10	305.70	359.50