MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		40	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		24	18	22	23	20	23	21	26	25	22	25
Exceeded High		17	16	17	12	16	17	19	18	18	15	16
Scenario Percentage		71%	89%	77%	52%	80%	74%	90%	69%	72%	68%	64%
Avg Max Increase		9.78%	11.55%	8.92%	12.07%	10.68%	12.37%	12.28%	11.92%	21.65%	15.74%	9.02%
Max Increase		29.23%	21.52%	39.04%	44.25%	48.78%	29.48%	36.23%	34.60%	100.18%	39.51%	27.23%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	16	18	18	21	19	20	17	19	12	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.05%	-2.08%	-2.95%	-2.03%	-2.65%	-1.90%	-2.98%	-1.94%	-2.47%	-1.62%	-0.59%
Max Decline		-3.38%	-6.07%	-10.74%	-5.56%	-9.52%	-7.64%	-19.80%	-5.30%	-10.86%	-6.22%	-4.93%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	6	9	6	10	6	10	9	9	6	2
2012 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		No		No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		40	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		16	25	23	22	24	22	23	19	20	23	20
Penetrated Low		9	23	17	14	16	22	18	12	12	19	12
Scenario Percentage		56%	92%	74%	64%	67%	100%	78%	63%	60%	83%	60%
Avg Max Decline		9.00%	7.05%	6.92%	8.10%	10.17%	5.93%	6.82%	6.96%	7.27%	6.69%	8.26%
Max Decline		33.13%	18.45%	18.18%	29.91%	28.40%	15.15%	31.68%	27.54%	16.08%	38.60%	43.20%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	15	15	15	18	16	12	15	21	10	6
Avg Max Increase		-1.92%	-2.02%	-2.26%	-1.59%	-1.69%	-2.11%	-2.57%	-1.70%	-4.36%	-2.60%	0.52%
Max Increase		-4.82%	-5.35%	-6.93%	-4.81%	-9.50%	-5.65%	-8.62%	-4.61%	-9.98%	-9.96%	-2.05%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	11	7	8	6	8	11	8	13	5	2
2012 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes						Yes
Action			Yes		Yes						Yes
High	371.90	393.40	393.00	337.70	328.00	321.40	331.20	354.80	394.50	436.50	437.60	439.90
Low	338.00	347.20	319.50	312.70	290.70	288.20	302.60	321.80	349.50	386.90	394.20	388.20
Close/Last	365.00	391.30	320.80	326.00	301.50	319.00	323.90	353.60	389.70	435.50	394.50	436.00