MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	35	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher	21	18	22	24	19	22	18	23	23	25	26
Exceeded High	15	15	17	12	14	15	16	16	16	18	14
Scenario Percentage	71%	83%	77%	50%	74%	68%	89%	70%	70%	72%	54%
Avg Max Increase	8.88%	10.89%	8.37%	11.13%	10.68%	11.69%	12.20%	10.47%	22.78%	15.04%	8.84%
Max Increase	29.23%	21.52%	39.04%	44.25%	48.78%	29.48%	36.23%	25.04%	100.18%	39.51%	27.23%
Avg Days To Max Increase	14	15	17	21	21	20	20	18	20	13	7
Avg Max Decline	-1.17%	-1.46%	-2.80%	-1.75%	-2.29%	-2.16%	-3.08%	-2.06%	-1.33%	-1.45%	-0.36%
Max Decline	-3.38%	-4.95%	-10.74%	-5.56%	-9.52%	-7.64%	-19.80%	-5.30%	-3.94%	-6.22%	-2.01%
Avg Days to Max Decline	6	6	10	7	8	6	11	9	9	6	2
2007 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	No			Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	35	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower	14	25	23	21	25	23	26	22	22	20	19
Penetrated Low	7	23	17	13	16	23	21	14	13	16	13
Scenario Percentage	50%	92%	74%	62%	64%	100%	81%	64%	59%	80%	68%
Avg Max Decline	5.50%	5.94%	6.08%	8.03%	9.48%	5.95%	6.85%	6.64%	6.49%	7.26%	14.46%
Max Decline	9.00%	18.45%	18.18%	29.91%	28.40%	15.15%	31.68%	27.54%	16.08%	38.60%	75.28%
Avg Days To Max Decline	13	15	15	17	18	17	16	18	20	10	9
Avg Max Increase	-2.27%	-1.95%	-2.11%	-2.23%	-1.56%	-1.86%	-2.28%	-1.58%	-3.89%	-2.48%	-0.77%
Max Increase	-4.82%	-5.35%	-6.93%	-7.91%	-9.50%	-5.65%	-8.62%	-4.61%	-9.98%	-9.96%	-9.42%
Avg Days to Max Increase	5	12	7	10	6	7	9	9	10	5	-52
2007 Contract Condition	Yes				Yes			Yes	Yes
Action	Yes				No			Yes	No
High	178.00	176.50	197.50	208.90	203.50	225.20	245.20	237.10	224.80	221.30	240.00
Low	169.80	167.30	170.30	193.60	192.80	196.90	217.00	213.00	196.10	197.60	215.00
Close/Last	170.90	171.90	195.50	203.60	203.50	217.10	236.10	217.40	198.80	216.90	229.20