MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of May 17, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		23	19	24	18	20	24	19	25	21	28	26
Exceeded High		17	12	20	15	15	16	15	18	18	19	15
Scenario Percentage		74%	63%	83%	83%	75%	67%	79%	72%	86%	68%	58%
Avg Max Increase		11.87%	11.26%	9.03%	11.55%	10.18%	10.25%	9.50%	11.48%	9.85%	10.84%	6.08%
Max Increase		37.18%	23.73%	31.71%	22.51%	21.50%	25.29%	22.64%	28.27%	24.53%	36.48%	11.24%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	14	14	15	19	15	18	19	19	12	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.43%	-1.98%	-1.34%	-2.16%	-3.05%	-2.14%	-2.87%	-2.24%	-2.50%	-2.26%	-1.50%
Max Decline		-11.10%	-5.97%	-6.62%	-6.65%	-9.93%	-5.80%	-9.58%	-8.08%	-7.04%	-6.81%	-3.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	7	7	5	9	9	12	7	9	9	2
2024 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action		No		Yes		Yes	No				Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		22	26	20	27	25	21	26	20	24	17	19
Penetrated Low		20	22	15	24	17	16	22	19	17	11	9
Scenario Percentage		91%	85%	75%	89%	68%	76%	85%	95%	71%	65%	47%
Avg Max Decline		7.30%	6.63%	7.34%	5.68%	6.79%	6.53%	7.48%	6.05%	6.57%	5.59%	4.40%
Max Decline		13.51%	23.54%	33.26%	17.26%	15.72%	14.78%	16.04%	15.96%	13.29%	10.94%	9.83%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	17	13	14	16	16	16	15	15	10	10
Avg Max Increase		-4.18%	-1.88%	-1.87%	-1.82%	-1.89%	-2.42%	-1.89%	-1.96%	-3.00%	-1.56%	-1.24%
Max Increase		-15.00%	-7.83%	-4.84%	-6.01%	-7.59%	-7.49%	-6.22%	-5.70%	-8.60%	-3.78%	-3.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	8	6	10	6	9	7	9	12	6	3
2024 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes	No
High	398.10	416.30	406.00	401.90	396.60	411.30	435.90	407.40	384.50	365.20	347.60	354.60
Low	350.60	350.00	372.50	366.10	372.00	366.50	398.20	381.60	347.40	323.20	325.40	325.10
Close/Last	353.60	380.20	377.00	392.50	373.10	402.30	408.00	384.80	364.10	329.20	337.70	346.30