MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Nov 09, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		22	18	25	19	20	23	19	25	23	27	26
Exceeded High		17	11	20	16	14	15	14	19	19	18	14
Scenario Percentage		77%	61%	80%	84%	70%	65%	74%	76%	83%	67%	54%
Avg Max Increase		13.75%	12.11%	9.33%	11.74%	9.20%	8.03%	8.96%	11.23%	12.07%	11.59%	6.27%
Max Increase		37.18%	23.73%	31.71%	22.51%	17.52%	25.29%	17.19%	28.27%	36.71%	36.48%	13.92%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	13	14	15	19	14	19	20	19	13	9
Avg Max Decline		-0.84%	-1.29%	-1.08%	-2.15%	-3.45%	-2.16%	-2.71%	-2.22%	-2.35%	-1.70%	-1.30%
Max Decline		-11.10%	-5.49%	-3.43%	-6.65%	-9.93%	-5.80%	-9.58%	-8.08%	-7.04%	-5.37%	-3.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	5	6	5	10	9	9	7	9	9	2
2020 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	No		Yes		Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		23	27	19	26	25	22	26	20	22	18	19
Penetrated Low		22	22	15	23	18	16	21	19	16	12	8
Scenario Percentage		96%	81%	79%	88%	72%	73%	81%	95%	73%	67%	42%
Avg Max Decline		7.94%	6.93%	6.90%	6.45%	6.81%	6.53%	7.07%	5.51%	6.27%	4.95%	3.20%
Max Decline		24.02%	23.54%	33.26%	17.87%	15.72%	14.78%	16.04%	15.96%	13.29%	9.92%	7.02%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	16	13	15	16	16	16	14	14	8	9
Avg Max Increase		-3.59%	-1.71%	-1.97%	-2.03%	-2.11%	-2.42%	-1.98%	-2.08%	-2.61%	-1.42%	-1.27%
Max Increase		-15.00%	-7.83%	-4.84%	-6.01%	-7.59%	-7.49%	-6.22%	-5.70%	-8.60%	-3.78%	-3.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	8	5	11	7	9	7	10	11	5	3
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes			Not Yet
High	335.70	336.60	331.30	315.00	313.50	322.70	316.20	310.90	311.10	307.40	336.30	322.60
Low	298.10	320.90	313.30	302.20	301.40	310.20	300.80	300.10	295.70	290.70	295.60	278.80
Close/Last	329.70	329.00	314.50	303.10	310.40	314.20	301.20	308.50	296.30	305.60	321.50	289.60