MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Dec 30, 2011
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		40	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	18	27	19	21	23	22	23	20	25	26
Exceeded High		16	11	20	16	18	14	16	17	18	16	14
Scenario Percentage		76%	61%	74%	84%	86%	61%	73%	74%	90%	64%	54%
Avg Max Increase		12.82%	11.14%	9.41%	12.34%	9.62%	10.49%	11.04%	11.35%	12.40%	9.50%	6.14%
Max Increase		37.18%	23.73%	31.71%	22.51%	40.91%	46.01%	47.72%	31.15%	36.71%	24.11%	21.87%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	14	17	15	18	16	21	20	19	11	7
Avg Max Decline		-0.80%	-1.89%	-1.02%	-2.40%	-2.76%	-1.68%	-2.63%	-2.10%	-3.41%	-1.50%	-0.82%
Max Decline		-11.10%	-12.10%	-3.43%	-6.65%	-9.93%	-5.80%	-9.58%	-8.08%	-19.93%	-5.37%	-2.95%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	6	9	6	10	5	9	7	11	8	2
2011 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Not Yet

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		40	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	27	17	26	24	22	23	22	25	20	19
Penetrated Low		19	20	12	22	17	14	18	22	19	14	8
Scenario Percentage		100%	74%	71%	85%	71%	64%	78%	100%	76%	70%	42%
Avg Max Decline		8.34%	5.97%	9.34%	6.64%	7.23%	8.47%	9.35%	5.81%	7.31%	6.32%	2.59%
Max Decline		24.02%	23.54%	33.26%	17.87%	21.87%	31.95%	29.17%	16.21%	35.00%	30.37%	6.44%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	15	15	14	16	17	18	15	13	9	7
Avg Max Increase		-3.97%	-1.67%	-1.57%	-2.13%	-2.14%	-2.12%	-2.25%	-2.29%	-2.48%	-1.02%	-1.38%
Max Increase		-15.00%	-7.83%	-4.31%	-6.01%	-7.59%	-6.45%	-9.97%	-5.73%	-8.60%	-3.78%	-3.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	6	5	11	8	7	10	9	9	4	3
2011 Contract Condition										Yes		Yes
Action										Yes		Not Yet
High	279.40	272.40	288.60	301.80	326.00	345.30	370.20	375.80	390.40	393.30	377.50	373.00
Low	252.50	251.70	260.00	283.00	294.00	292.80	323.10	335.90	363.20	348.30	339.70	337.60
Close/Last	255.50	260.20	286.60	295.10	312.10	339.30	341.90	374.50	382.90	361.90	370.70	358.10