MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		39	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	18	26	18	21	23	22	23	20	24	27
Exceeded High		15	10	19	15	18	14	16	17	18	16	14
Scenario Percentage		75%	56%	73%	83%	86%	61%	73%	74%	90%	67%	52%
Avg Max Increase		12.60%	10.88%	9.01%	11.93%	9.34%	10.27%	11.24%	11.38%	12.40%	9.63%	6.46%
Max Increase		37.18%	23.73%	31.71%	22.51%	40.91%	46.01%	47.72%	31.15%	36.71%	24.11%	21.87%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	13	16	15	17	16	21	20	19	12	8
Avg Max Decline		-0.84%	-1.96%	-1.03%	-2.15%	-2.60%	-1.51%	-2.43%	-2.16%	-3.41%	-1.50%	-1.01%
Max Decline		-11.10%	-12.10%	-3.43%	-6.65%	-9.93%	-5.80%	-9.58%	-8.08%	-19.93%	-5.37%	-3.34%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	6	7	6	9	4	9	7	11	8	2
2010 Contract Condition			Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action			Yes			Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		39	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		19	27	18	27	24	22	23	22	25	21	18
Penetrated Low		19	20	13	23	17	14	18	22	19	14	8
Scenario Percentage		100%	74%	72%	85%	71%	64%	78%	100%	76%	67%	44%
Avg Max Decline		8.34%	5.97%	8.86%	6.41%	7.23%	8.47%	9.35%	5.81%	7.00%	6.32%	2.66%
Max Decline		24.02%	23.54%	33.26%	17.87%	21.87%	31.95%	29.17%	16.21%	35.00%	30.37%	7.02%
Avg Days To Max Decline		14	15	16	14	16	17	18	15	14	9	7
Avg Max Increase		-3.97%	-1.67%	-1.70%	-2.08%	-2.14%	-2.12%	-2.25%	-2.29%	-2.44%	-1.02%	-1.38%
Max Increase		-15.00%	-7.83%	-4.31%	-6.01%	-7.59%	-6.45%	-9.97%	-5.73%	-8.60%	-3.78%	-3.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	6	7	11	8	7	10	9	8	4	3
2010 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes		Not Yet
High	306.10	331.00	300.70	305.40	294.10	298.10	308.50	313.10	307.70	283.60	283.50	296.70
Low	269.20	271.50	265.00	276.10	269.10	260.00	275.30	289.50	268.00	259.90	251.00	260.50
Close/Last	302.60	283.30	287.40	287.40	274.60	281.80	307.20	300.10	268.50	270.00	265.80	291.30