MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	23	20	18	24	19	20	22	19	24	19
Exceeded High		16	19	15	12	20	16	14	15	13	14	12
Scenario Percentage		76%	83%	75%	67%	83%	84%	70%	68%	68%	58%	63%
Avg Max Increase		14.26%	11.86%	11.61%	11.53%	10.74%	13.52%	10.00%	10.02%	9.91%	11.64%	4.93%
Max Increase		45.63%	28.87%	29.17%	25.47%	36.86%	26.00%	20.59%	26.59%	23.55%	21.29%	11.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	14	16	16	16	17	16	13	20	13	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.91%	-1.91%	-1.28%	-2.11%	-1.35%	-1.89%	-2.33%	-2.49%	-3.22%	-2.00%	-0.78%
Max Decline		-7.01%	-6.47%	-10.55%	-5.04%	-3.76%	-6.98%	-8.91%	-6.22%	-9.14%	-5.56%	-2.51%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	6	8	6	6	4	6	10	16	5	3
2022 Contract Condition		Yes							Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes							Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		22	22	25	27	20	26	24	23	26	21	26
Penetrated Low		15	20	21	22	17	23	17	17	21	19	16
Scenario Percentage		68%	91%	84%	81%	85%	88%	71%	74%	81%	90%	62%
Avg Max Decline		7.28%	6.49%	8.65%	7.31%	7.59%	6.34%	7.40%	8.05%	7.66%	5.87%	3.23%
Max Decline		13.60%	15.57%	25.23%	23.98%	33.63%	17.28%	16.44%	27.78%	18.26%	12.77%	8.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	19	16	17	13	14	15	15	17	10	8
Avg Max Increase		-2.23%	-3.47%	-2.74%	-1.79%	-2.05%	-2.12%	-2.08%	-2.38%	-2.18%	-1.90%	-0.97%
Max Increase		-9.22%	-15.36%	-12.52%	-7.06%	-4.74%	-6.64%	-7.78%	-7.11%	-5.44%	-5.77%	-3.42%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	10	7	9	9	11	4	8	8	7	2
2022 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	No
High	389.10	405.10	409.30	394.50	385.50	365.30	351.80	337.00	371.90	415.10	431.80	493.10
Low	356.20	375.20	370.80	344.30	348.70	348.50	333.20	314.30	325.90	339.10	387.40	417.10
Close/Last	383.90	391.80	385.20	374.10	355.70	349.30	333.40	331.40	341.10	399.10	418.90	454.90