MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		21	24	21	18	25	18	20	22	18	24	20
Exceeded High		16	20	16	12	20	15	14	14	12	15	11
Scenario Percentage		76%	83%	76%	67%	80%	83%	70%	64%	67%	63%	55%
Avg Max Increase		16.49%	12.96%	13.29%	11.75%	10.43%	13.23%	9.29%	8.12%	8.57%	10.67%	4.57%
Max Increase		45.63%	33.81%	31.78%	25.47%	36.86%	26.00%	20.59%	23.98%	16.22%	19.25%	9.01%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	14	15	16	15	17	16	14	21	13	6
Avg Max Decline		-1.80%	-1.82%	-1.14%	-1.87%	-1.30%	-2.01%	-2.76%	-2.45%	-3.25%	-1.92%	-0.76%
Max Decline		-7.01%	-6.47%	-10.55%	-5.04%	-3.76%	-6.98%	-8.91%	-6.22%	-9.14%	-5.56%	-2.51%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	5	5	5	6	4	7	10	17	5	2
2020 Contract Condition			Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action			Yes				Yes	No		No		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		22	21	24	27	19	27	24	23	27	21	25
Penetrated Low		16	19	21	22	16	23	18	17	21	19	15
Scenario Percentage		73%	90%	88%	81%	84%	85%	75%	74%	78%	90%	60%
Avg Max Decline		7.22%	6.27%	8.65%	7.25%	7.44%	6.76%	7.41%	8.05%	7.66%	5.81%	2.81%
Max Decline		13.60%	15.57%	25.23%	23.98%	33.63%	17.28%	16.44%	27.78%	18.26%	12.77%	8.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	18	16	16	13	14	15	15	17	9	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.02%	-3.52%	-2.74%	-1.69%	-2.14%	-2.14%	-2.32%	-2.38%	-2.18%	-1.90%	-0.89%
Max Increase		-9.22%	-15.36%	-12.52%	-7.06%	-4.74%	-6.64%	-7.78%	-7.11%	-5.44%	-5.77%	-3.42%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	11	7	9	9	11	6	8	8	7	2
2020 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
High	326.90	324.10	335.70	336.20	330.00	311.10	309.70	319.50	312.70	307.90	307.50	300.40
Low	313.50	306.70	295.50	319.30	309.50	298.80	297.20	306.00	296.80	296.20	290.40	284.80
Close/Last	317.80	307.90	329.70	327.00	310.60	299.70	306.20	310.50	297.10	304.70	291.00	298.60