MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		20	25	21	18	26	17	19	22	18	24	19
Exceeded High		15	21	16	13	21	14	15	13	13	15	11
Scenario Percentage		75%	84%	76%	72%	81%	82%	79%	59%	72%	63%	58%
Avg Max Increase		21.42%	14.18%	12.97%	11.83%	10.30%	15.07%	11.65%	11.86%	11.69%	11.71%	5.87%
Max Increase		62.28%	33.81%	31.78%	25.47%	36.86%	26.00%	44.67%	50.62%	49.11%	32.02%	11.90%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	14	16	15	16	16	16	16	21	14	8
Avg Max Decline		-2.30%	-2.56%	-1.45%	-2.68%	-1.28%	-2.54%	-2.60%	-2.37%	-3.25%	-1.84%	-0.73%
Max Decline		-7.01%	-16.45%	-10.55%	-12.35%	-3.76%	-6.98%	-8.91%	-6.22%	-9.14%	-5.56%	-2.51%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	7	6	5	6	5	6	9	16	5	3
2017 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No				Yes	Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		42	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		21	20	24	27	18	28	25	23	27	21	26
Penetrated Low		15	18	20	21	15	24	19	17	21	19	15
Scenario Percentage		71%	90%	83%	78%	83%	86%	76%	74%	78%	90%	58%
Avg Max Decline		7.44%	6.18%	9.06%	7.39%	9.80%	7.26%	8.23%	9.85%	9.50%	6.64%	3.23%
Max Decline		13.60%	15.57%	25.23%	23.98%	33.63%	18.79%	22.95%	32.82%	29.53%	16.80%	8.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	19	14	16	14	15	15	14	18	9	7
Avg Max Increase		-2.14%	-3.56%	-2.87%	-1.76%	-1.86%	-2.20%	-2.25%	-2.44%	-2.46%	-2.06%	-0.88%
Max Increase		-9.22%	-15.36%	-12.52%	-7.06%	-4.74%	-6.64%	-7.78%	-7.11%	-10.38%	-5.77%	-3.42%
Avg Days to Max Increase		9	11	6	8	8	11	6	8	8	6	2
2017 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	No			Yes		Yes
High	284.60	325.70	355.10	389.80	378.70	334.10	318.20	330.20	331.70	330.90	353.70	350.30
Low	271.60	276.50	320.20	345.90	320.60	302.50	297.60	298.60	308.40	311.00	310.70	328.40
Close/Last	279.60	322.30	349.90	376.90	335.20	303.80	302.10	319.60	321.10	316.60	334.60	332.60