MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		38	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		19	27	23	18	26	17	21	22	22	24	17
Exceeded High		15	24	18	11	19	14	18	14	16	15	10
Scenario Percentage		79%	89%	78%	61%	73%	82%	86%	64%	73%	63%	59%
Avg Max Increase		21.05%	13.18%	10.04%	10.74%	10.29%	13.97%	9.87%	10.64%	11.01%	11.02%	5.55%
Max Increase		62.28%	33.81%	31.78%	25.47%	36.86%	26.00%	44.67%	50.62%	49.11%	32.02%	11.90%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	14	15	13	16	17	15	17	20	13	7
Avg Max Decline		-1.64%	-2.20%	-1.97%	-2.41%	-1.23%	-2.19%	-2.12%	-1.78%	-2.39%	-1.58%	-0.76%
Max Decline		-6.76%	-16.45%	-10.55%	-12.35%	-3.76%	-6.98%	-8.91%	-6.22%	-9.14%	-5.52%	-2.51%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	6	8	5	6	5	7	7	13	5	2
2010 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		38	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		18	18	22	27	18	28	23	23	23	21	28
Penetrated Low		13	16	19	20	14	24	17	15	17	20	15
Scenario Percentage		72%	89%	86%	74%	78%	86%	74%	65%	74%	95%	54%
Avg Max Decline		7.29%	6.38%	8.86%	6.15%	9.34%	6.11%	7.71%	9.96%	10.56%	6.35%	2.84%
Max Decline		13.60%	15.57%	25.23%	23.98%	33.63%	18.79%	22.95%	32.82%	29.53%	16.80%	8.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	20	14	15	15	15	15	15	20	9	5
Avg Max Increase		-2.32%	-4.04%	-2.81%	-1.55%	-1.72%	-2.09%	-2.36%	-2.15%	-2.55%	-2.06%	-0.70%
Max Increase		-9.22%	-15.36%	-12.52%	-7.06%	-4.28%	-6.64%	-7.78%	-5.45%	-10.38%	-5.77%	-2.22%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	13	6	7	8	12	6	7	10	7	2
2010 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
High	273.50	276.00	314.90	333.40	309.30	313.00	295.50	303.10	312.60	316.60	313.20	289.60
Low	234.20	257.60	273.00	280.00	264.40	277.90	270.00	262.00	275.00	291.20	273.00	265.50
Close/Last	267.40	273.00	311.60	291.30	292.10	291.50	279.10	285.50	310.10	306.10	273.80	273.20